The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is down by -0.48% today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down by -0.33%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.73%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ26) are down -0.48%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ26) are down -0.73%.

Stock indexes are under pressure today after crude prices erased an overnight decline and rose more than +1%, lifting bond yields and undercutting market sentiment. The 10-year T-note yield jumped to a 19-year high of 5.06% today and raised the odds of a Fed rate hike at next month’s FOMC meeting to 75% from 53% yesterday. Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are also sliding today, weighing on the broader market and giving back some of Tuesday’s gains that pushed the Nasdaq 100 to a new record high.

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Stocks are also pressured, and bond yields rose today on hawkish comments from Fed Governor Michael Barr that suggest he favors additional Fed tightening when he said: "further policy adjustments by the Fed are likely to be needed to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion."

Today’s US economic news was better than expected, supporting stocks but pushing bond yields higher after the Sep S&P manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +3.1 to 57.0, stronger than expectations of a decline to 53.7 and the fastest pace of expansion in 4.25 years.

Stocks have support on positive anticipation ahead of a summit later this week between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping.

Stocks found some support today after the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) raised its US GDP forecast and cut its inflation forecast for this year. The OECD raised its 2026 US GDP forecast by +0.2 to 2.2% from a June forecast of 2.0%. The OECD cut its 2026 US inflation forecast -0.1 to 3.6% from a June forecast of 3.7%.

US MBA mortgage applications fell -1.5% in the week ended September 18, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down -0.8% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index down -2.6%. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose +15 bp to a 2.25-year high of 7.12% from 6.97% in the prior week.

Nov WTI crude oil prices (CLX26) recovered from overnight losses and are up more than +1% as the US and Iran remain at odds over key issues, including control over the Strait of Hormuz. Crude prices initially fell in overnight trading on signs of more crude supplies leaving the Middle East. Data compiled by Bloomberg from the European Union's Copernicus satellite shows oil supertankers with the capacity to ship 12 million barrels of crude were at Saudi Arabia's Persian Gulf export installations on Tuesday. Saudi Arabia also said it plans for a meaningful resumption of its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea by Saturday.

Markets are discounting a 75% chance of a +25 bp Fed rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on October 27-28.

Overseas stock markets are lower today. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell from a 2-week high and is down -0.27%. China's Shanghai Composite closed down -0.39%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average did not trade today, with Japanese markets closed for the Autumnal Equinox Day holiday.

December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ6) are down by -20 ticks today. The 10-year T-note yield is up +10.3 bp to 5.066%. Dec T-notes retreated today and dropped to a 2.75-year low, and the 10-year T-note yield surged to a 19-year high of 5.067%. T-notes are under pressure after WTI crude oil erased an overnight decline and turned higher, raising inflation expectations. Supply pressures are also weighing on T-notes as the Treasury will auction $28 billion of 2-year floating-rate notes and $70 billion of 5-year T-notes later today. Losses in T-notes accelerated today after the US Sep S&P manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to a 4.25-year high, which boosted the odds of a Fed rate hike at next month’s FOMC meeting to 75% from 53% yesterday.

European government bond yields are moving higher today. The 10-year German bund yield is up +7.6 bp to 3.538%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +8.0 bp to 5.318%.

The Eurozone Sep S&P manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 52.7, stronger than expectations of a decline to 52.6.

The Eurozone Sep S&P composite PMI unexpectedly rose +1.1 to 53.1, stronger than expectations of a decline to 51.7 and the fastest pace of expansion in 3.25 years.

ECB Governing Council member and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said Eurozone inflation is above 3% and is projected to stay above the ECB's 2% goal for another year. Therefore, the ECB may have to raise interest rates to a level at which they hold back economic growth.

The OECD raised its 2026 Eurozone GDP forecast by +0.2 to 1.0% from a June forecast of 0.8%. The OECD also raised its 2026 Eurozone inflation forecast by +0.2 to 3.0% from a June forecast of 2.8%.

Markets are discounting a 58% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at the ECB’s next meeting on October 29.

Chipmakers and AI stocks are under pressure today, weighing on the overall market. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is down more than -1%. Intel (INTC), Broadcom (AVGO), Lam Research (LRCX), and SanDisk (SNDK) are down more than -2%. Also, ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Nvidia (NVDA), Micron Technology (MU), NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), KLA Corp (KLAC), ASML Holding NV (ASML), Analog Devices (ADI), and Microchip Technology (MCHP), and Qualcomm (QCOM) are down more than -1%.

Airlines and cruise line operators are falling today with WTI crude oil up more than +1%, raising fuel costs and dampening profitability prospects of the companies. Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) is down more than -3%, and Alaska Air Group (ALK) is down more than -2%. Also, American Airlines Group (AAL), United Airlines Holdings (UAL), Delta Air Lines (DAL), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Carnival (CCL), and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) are down more than -1%.

Software stocks are climbing today, a supportive factor for the broader market. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is up more than +4% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. Also, Atlassian Corp (TEAM) and Datadog (DDOG) are up more than +3%, and Cadence Design Systems (CDNS), IBM (IBM), ServiceNow (NOW), Salesforce (CRM), Thomson Reuters (TRI), and Workday (WDAY) are up more than +2%. Finally, Adobe Systems (ADBE) is up more than +1%.

Energy stocks and service providers are moving higher today with the strength in crude oil prices. APA Corp (APA) is up more than +3%, and ConocoPhillips (COP), Devon Energy (DVN), and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) are up more than +2%. Also, Chevron (CVX), ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), and Halliburton (HAL) are up more than +1%.

Voyager Technologies (VOYG) is down more than -13% after announcing its intention to offer $350 million of convertible senior notes in a private offering.

Paychex (PAYX) is down more than -7% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q1 management solutions revenue of $1.21 billion, weaker than the consensus of $1.23 billion.

McDonald’s (MCD) is down more than 4% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after announcing it will spend up to $8.5 billion to help franchises serve better food and improve service.

IonQ (IONQ) is up more than +7% after announcing that it developed the industry’s first end-to-end real-time quantum error correction decoder that runs on a single standard central processing unit.

Cintas Corp (CTAS), Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL), General Mills Inc (GIS), HB Fuller Co (FUL), NioCorp Developments Ltd (NB), Paychex Inc (PAYX), Stitch Fix Inc (SFIX), ZenaTech Inc (ZENA).

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.