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Rates Outlook: Don’t Get Too Comfortable

Crude oil prices jumped and stock prices fell after President Trump declared an end to the fragile ceasefire in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. military attacked dozens of targets along the Iranian coastline overnight, i…

Climate

Rates Outlook: Volatility Is No Friend of Spreads

📘 Why Manual Forex Trading Is Officially Dead — And AI Will Bury It in 2026 ________________________________________ 1. 🚨 Executive Summary Manual FX trading is not merely declining—it is entering its terminal phase. As…

Climate

Rising Real Yields Point to a 6% 10-Year Treasury Rate

The Relationship Every Gold Trader Should Understand Why Falling Real Yields Continue to Be One of Gold's Most Powerful Bullish Catalysts "Gold does not compete with stocks. Gold does not compete with bonds. Gold compet…

Climate

Rates Outlook: Bifurcated Risk Sentiment

(Kitco News) – Gold prices saw another choppy week, as renewed Middle East uncertainty and bargain-hunting failed to offset pressure from elevated Treasury yields, a resilient U.S. dollar, and fresh evidence that the Fe…

Climate

Repricing the ECB Path

It is a privilege to be here in Tallinn to deliver this lecture in memory of Professor Ragnar Nurkse. Widely regarded as one of the intellectual fathers of the post-war Bretton Woods system, his work showed how external…

Climate

Bond Market Weekly: The Selloff Is Starting to Find Its Limits

Actions by advanced economies to limit rising government bond yields are unlikely to be durable without additional policy change or a material economic slowdown—but the first is unlikely and the second is unwanted.

Climate

What Do Parabolic Treasury Yields Tell Us?

Precious metals investors are watching market conditions closely as gold and silver hover at pivotal price points. While both metals have already posted impressive gains, multiple converging factors suggest we may be wi…

Climate

Rates Fall Sharply Ahead of the September Jobs Report

TOKYO - Tokyo stocks fell on October 2, with the Nikkei 225 closing at 68,309, down 647 points, as investors took profits after the previous day’s sharp rally and turned cautious ahead of U.S. employment data, rising gl…

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Rates Spark: Widening Fiscal Woes

SEOUL – A surge in long-term US Treasury yields is driving up borrowing costs in Korea, lifting government bond yields and adding pressure on companies, households and stocks.

Climate

Central Banks' Rate Hike Signals: Navigating Market Reactions

Central banks' rate hike signals have been a focal point for global markets, with recent comments and policy stances influencing currency pairs and market sentiment. As traders navigate the complex landscape of monetary…

Climate

Gilts Too Distracted for Good News

Prime Minister Burnham presented UK government plans that should help ease gilt investors' concerns about political risks. For now, US rates and energy costs continue in the driver's seat, offering little relief for gil…

Climate

Real Yield Rise Is Not That Mysterious

Nasa is releasing a steady stream of stunning pictures of the Moon and Earth taken by the astronauts on its Artemis II Moon mission.

Climate

Rates Outlook: Asymmetric Relationship Between Oil and Rates

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 challenged much of the common Western understanding of Russia. How can the world better understand Russia? What are the steps forward for Western policy? The Eura…

Climate

Rates Outlook: Global Long-End Gets Some Relief From the BoE

The BoE today updated its approach to shrinking its balance sheet and the result today is a further drop in gilt yields with the 10 yr yield now down 8.5 bps. They will halt for the next 6 months its asset sales and thi…