Goldman Sachs and Citizens analysts said the agency's move create new opportunities in custody, tokenization infrastructure and stablecoin settlement, while giving brokers room to expand onchain products.

• The SEC’s five-year innovation exemption could benefit Coinbase, Robinhood and Circle by allowing qualifying tokenized U.S. stocks to trade through automated market makers on public blockchains.
• Coinbase’s tokenization, custody and stablecoin businesses position it to capitalize, while Robinhood must add shareholder rights and other features to make its stock tokens compliant.
• Circle could gain from increased use of USDC for settlement and collateral, while trading caps, issuer opt-outs and technical limits are expected to protect traditional exchanges from significant competition.

The SEC’s tokenized-stock experiment may be narrow for now, but analysts are already pointing to Coinbase (COIN), Robinhood (HOOD) and Circle (CRCL) as potential beneficiaries if more U.S. securities move onchain.

The Securities and Exchange Commission’s five-year innovation exemption creates a path for tokenized U.S. stocks to trade through automated market makers on public blockchains. To qualify, the tokens must preserve shareholder rights such as dividends and voting, while venues face limits on trading volume and the number of stocks they can offer.

Goldman Sachs said Coinbase could benefit across several parts of its business.

Its existing tokenized-equity offering already has many of the characteristics required by the SEC, including shareholder rights and dividends comparable with the underlying stock, the analysts said. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong also said earlier this week that voting rights are “coming soon,” a key piece in giving token holders the same rights as investors in the underlying shares.

Coinbase also has an institutional custody business and Coinbase Tokenize, which provides infrastructure for other firms putting assets onchain, the Goldman report added.

Analysts at Citizens similarly highlighted Coinbase’s reach across custody, tokenized assets, stablecoins and its Ethereum-based blockchain Base.

There is one hurdle if Coinbase wants to run a trading venue directly under the exemption. Its exchanges use central limit order books, while the SEC framework is built around automated market makers (AMM).

That means, the Goldman report noted, Coinbase would need new infrastructure or could route activity through AMM-based decentralized exchanges, for example to protocols on Base.

Robinhood expected to adjust for U.S. market

Robinhood could also benefit, even though its current offshore stock tokens do not fit the SEC framework.

Those products provide price exposure to U.S. shares through a derivative without conveying the full ownership rights required under the exemption. Goldman analysts said Robinhood would need additional product development to offer a compliant version in the U.S.

It became a flashpoint earlier this month when movie theater operator AMC Entertainment’s CEO criticized Robinhood for offering AMC-linked stock tokens without the company’s approval. The SEC’s new framework gives issuers the right to object before third-party tokenized versions of their shares can begin trading.

Still, Citizens analysts expect Robinhood to move quickly given the traction of its tokenized-equity offering outside the U.S. and its broader push around its Arbitrum-based Robinhood Chain.

Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev already signaled this week that more shareholder features, including share redemptions and voting rights, will be added to the stock tokens.

Stablecoins could be another winner

More tokenized securities trading could also bring more demand for tokenized cash.

Goldman and Citizens reports both pointed to Circle as an indirect beneficiary, with USDC potentially used for settlement, collateral and other activity around onchain markets.

Coinbase would benefit here as well through its economic exposure and close links to USDC and its role in distribution.

Meanwhile, traditional exchanges such as Nasdaq (NDAQ) and NYSE owner Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) appear less exposed for now. Goldman said the new venues are unlikely to take meaningful volume from incumbent exchanges given trading caps, issuer opt-outs and the limits of AMMs in deeper markets.

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