“A return to last year’s indiscriminate capital raising looks unlikely,” said Bitfinex head of derivatives Jag Kooner.

Corporate Bitcoin purchases could accelerate toward the end of 2026 and into 2027 if the cryptocurrency rallies, but investors are likely to be more selective about which treasury companies they finance, according to analysts.

Speaking to Cointelegraph, Bitwise head of research Ryan Rasmussen said there was a broad slowdown in Bitcoin treasury buying in Q3. Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings increased by a net 1,666 BTC in Q3, down from 83,901 BTC in Q2, according to company filings. Other public companies added a net 5,617 BTC, compared with 45,725 BTC in the previous quarter, according to figures supplied by Rasmussen.

Rasmussen said he expects a re-acceleration of corporate Bitcoin purchases to begin as early as this year. Bitfinex head of derivatives Jag Kooner said renewed buying could follow if treasury companies regain premiums to the value of their Bitcoin holdings, but cautioned that investors have become more selective since the 2025 treasury boom.

“Shareholders have seen premiums collapse and some companies sell into weakness. Investors are now pricing these businesses on funding costs, balance-sheet discipline and bitcoin per share,” said Kooner.

“A rally could therefore restart buying, particularly among companies with credible financing structures but a return to last year’s indiscriminate capital raising looks unlikely.”

Established Bitcoin treasuries may get first access to capital

Bitwise’s October market report also showed a decline in the number of Bitcoin treasuries in Q3, driven by smaller companies abandoning their Bitcoin treasury strategies. A dozen companies that entered during the 2025 treasury boom sold their entire holdings mostly to repay debt or return cash to shareholders after their stock premiums evaporated, said Rasmussen.

Kooner expects established players to attract capital first if buying resumes.

“Initially, capital would likely gravitate towards established players, which have the scale, the liquidity in their own securities and the track record investors now demand,” he said.

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Rasmussen said most of the largest corporate buyers outside Strategy were operating businesses adding Bitcoin from cash flow rather than issuing stock to fund purchases. That represents “a smaller source of demand but a healthier one,” he said.

Meanwhile, Kooner cautioned that a broader resurgence of new treasury-companies could emerge only after a rally is well underway.

“A broad wave of new listings would most likely arrive late in a rally, once premiums have widened and that timing is itself a warning sign.”

Bitcoin ETFs could support recovery without treasury boom

Even without another corporate Bitcoin buying boom, Rasmussen said there will be other drivers for a Bitcoin recovery, pointing to $6.4 billion in spot Bitcoin net inflow in Q3.

“Corporate purchases are one source of demand for bitcoin, but not the only source,” he said.

Kooner agreed ETF demand could sustain the recovery for a period, but cautioned that some activity reflects basis trades that can unwind quickly.

“Without corporate buying, the market loses a price-insensitive bid and becomes more dependent on allocators who rebalance with macro conditions,” he said.

Recent flows show that ETF demand can reverse. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded around $229 million in net outflows last week, their second consecutive week of net withdrawals, according to SoSoValue data.

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