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Bitcoin Slides Below $69,000; Anthropic IPO Seen as Hidden Driver- Analysts said demand for cash ahead of Anthropic’s IPO was one factor behind Bitcoin’s drop below $69,000.
- Anthropic said its planned $64.4 billion IPO and 20% retail allocation could trigger competition with capital typically invested in crypto.
- During the earlier SpaceX listing, Bitcoin and Ether also plunged before rebounding after the debut, and the article said downside risk could again be larger depending on spot Bitcoin ETF fund flows.
Anthropic seeks as much as $64.4 billion in IPO
Investors securing cash ahead of a mega listing
Bitcoin also fell 20% before SpaceX’s listing
Bitcoin slipped below $69,000, with some analysts saying selling tied to artificial intelligence company Anthropic’s initial public offering is adding to the pressure. The view is that investors are selling crypto assets to raise cash for the share sale. The move has also drawn comparisons with June, when Bitcoin fell about 20% over a month ahead of SpaceX’s listing.
Bitcoin fell as low as $68,527 during the session on Binance’s Tether market on Nov. 13. It was recently trading around $68,920, down about 6.7% from a day earlier.
Some in the industry say Anthropic’s IPO is one reason Bitcoin’s decline has deepened this month. Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, said the offering may be one factor behind the recent drop. Investors tend to line up capital ahead of large IPOs, he added.
"$64.4 Billion Offering Could Pull Capital From Crypto"
Anthropic plans to raise as much as $64.4 billion through a Nasdaq listing expected on Nov. 19. The company plans to offer 825 million shares at $70 to $78 each. At the top of that range, its valuation would reach about $1.4 trillion. That would make it another blockbuster offering after SpaceX’s $75 billion deal in June.
About 20% of the shares on offer will be allocated to retail investors. That implies roughly $12.9 billion at the top of the price range. Bitfinex said in a report dated Nov. 11 that Anthropic’s allocation structure warrants attention. The exchange said the pool of retail investors active in crypto overlaps with those likely to buy Anthropic shares, setting up competition for limited capital.
The same concern surfaced during the SpaceX listing. Adam Morgan, senior researcher at Lotech, said retail and institutional money was leaving risk assets to secure SpaceX IPO allocations. That pressure does not disappear the moment trading begins. Crypto and AI-related investments are competing for the same pool of capital, he said.
Anthropic stock could also attract heavy buying after the listing. Index analytics firm Intropic estimated demand from index-tracking funds at about $19 billion. Other investors may also move early to secure shares in anticipation of accelerated inclusion in major indexes.
Carsten Hesse, head of index events at Berenberg, said Anthropic could see the same index-driven supply-and-demand dynamics that surrounded SpaceX in the early days of trading.
Bitcoin Sank Before SpaceX Too, Then Rebounded Three Months Later
Crypto weakness was clear before SpaceX went public. Bitcoin fell about 20% from roughly $79,300 on May 13, 30 days before the June 12 listing, to about $63,580 on the day of the debut. Ether dropped about 26% over the same period, falling from $2,258 to $1,666.
Three months later, both assets were trading above their listing-day levels. On Sept. 12, Bitcoin stood at $77,278, up about 22%, while Ether rose about 52% to $2,526. In other words, the crypto assets that weakened ahead of the mega IPO later recovered. Still, Bitcoin fell further to an intraday low of $57,800 shortly after SpaceX’s listing. Ether also made a lower low at $1,512 on June 26.
Bitfinex said the key moment in the SpaceX case was not the listing day itself but the earlier fundraising process. Bitcoin fell sharply before the IPO roadshow began, then mostly moved sideways from the start of the roadshow through the first week after the listing.
The exchange added that Anthropic’s market debut could also affect Bitcoin through the Nasdaq because investors may treat the deal’s reception as a verdict on AI valuations. If flows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds do not turn positive, the downside risk from a weak IPO reception could outweigh any upside tied to a successful deal, Bitfinex said.
Iliya Otychenko, chief analyst at CEX.IO, said during the SpaceX listing that the trend several weeks after the debut mattered more than the first trading day. For IPO profits to rotate back into crypto, the newly listed company’s stock price would need to hold steady and outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs would need to ease, he said.
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