Federal regulators have opened an inquiry into so-called "mention markets" on prediction platforms, where traders wager millions of dollars on whether public figures will utter specific words, prompting Kalshi to suspend the contracts across its sports segment.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is examining whether these word-based contracts are inherently vulnerable to manipulation, according to two people with direct knowledge of the probe who spoke to NPR on condition of anonymity. In response, Kalshi, the largest U.S. prediction market, has removed all sports mention markets "until further notice," one of the people said.
Mention markets have surged in popularity as a niche corner of the booming event-contract industry. On Kalshi, sports versions included wagers on whether broadcasters would say terms like "MVP," "ankle" or "redshirt" during live coverage. Political variants let traders bet on words President Donald Trump might use in speeches, while earnings-call markets track whether executives mention specific companies or business topics.
The suspension is significant for Kalshi's business. Sports wagers account for more than 80% of the billions of dollars traded weekly on the platform, according to NPR. Yet the company continues to list mention contracts tied to political appearances, corporate earnings calls and live television newscasts. A Klarna earnings market, for instance, still showed active contracts linked to whether executives would reference particular companies.
The regulatory scrutiny follows a high-profile insider trading case that reached the White House. Last month, Kalshi flagged suspicious trades involving Gabriel Perez, Trump's longtime teleprompter operator, who allegedly used advance access to prepared remarks to profit from word bets on presidential appearances. Sources told Reuters that more than $90,000 in potential profits were frozen before they could be withdrawn. Perez was later removed from his role.
"These mention markets are not popular across the political aisle," one person familiar with the CFTC's internal deliberations told NPR. "They are potentially very easy to manipulate, so the CFTC is taking a hard look at whether some of them make sense."
At the heart of the review is a core requirement of the Commodity Exchange Act: designated contract markets may list only contracts that are not "readily susceptible to manipulation." The CFTC has previously stated in its broader prediction-market rulemaking that sports contracts based on aggregate performance carry lower manipulation risk when no single participant can determine the outcome through one action. A mention contract works differently, since one broadcaster, executive or politician can effectively determine settlement by simply saying a particular word.
The CFTC has also warned prediction exchanges against broad template self-certifications, telling platforms that each product needs enough detail for regulators to assess settlement methods, data sources and compliance controls. Most prediction markets are self-certified, meaning platforms can launch contracts after filing paperwork affirming compliance with rules governing swaps, a type of financial derivative.
Kalshi and the CFTC both declined to comment. The regulator has not published an enforcement action or announcement describing the review.
Polymarket, Kalshi's main competitor, also offers mention markets but only on its offshore platform, which operates outside CFTC jurisdiction. Its smaller U.S.-regulated exchange does not list them.
The probe is not the CFTC's first encounter with event-contract manipulation. Former Rep. George Santos recently agreed to penalties over manipulative Kalshi trades tied to whether he would attend Trump's State of the Union address. Kalshi has also introduced employer disclosures for higher-risk markets and said it blocked more than 100 potential insider trades during the first quarter.
Inside Kalshi, employees have debated the value of mention markets. Co-founder Luana Lopes Lara has championed them as a way to attract users beyond sports betting, according to a former staffer who spoke anonymously for fear of retaliation. The company faces more than two dozen lawsuits from states and tribes over its sports prediction markets, making diversification a strategic priority.
The category has produced notable controversies. During the live broadcast of the World Cup final on Fox, traders placed millions of dollars in bets on which celebrities would attend. When a Fox sportscaster mistook Matt Damon for Brad Pitt, several news organizations erroneously reported Pitt was present. Some of those outlets serve as Kalshi's "source agencies" that help resolve markets. The contract settled on Pitt attending, strictly following its rules, even though the actor was not there. Traders who bet Pitt was absent collectively lost $287,866, according to Kalshi data.
The immediate question is whether the CFTC will seek changes only to sports mention markets or conclude that some word-based contracts cannot satisfy anti-manipulation standards regardless of subject matter. Kalshi could modify contract structures, eligibility requirements or surveillance controls rather than abandoning the category entirely. For now, sports mention markets remain suspended with no announced return date, while political and earnings-related word contracts continue trading. A formal CFTC statement or additional Kalshi restrictions would provide the next clear signal of how broad the review becomes.
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