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Historically Tight Credit Spreads Face a Test as Rates Rise

At the turn of the year 2025-26, economic growth surprised on the upside while financial market sentiment remained strong despite high uncertainty. The war in the Middle East is now putting this resilience to the test. …

Climate

Rates Outlook: A Short Sigh of Relief

The prospect of a peace agreement between the United States andIran is fueling optimism across global financial and commodity markets. At the center of attention is the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most important…

Climate

Global Bond Markets at a Tipping Point

A historic bond issuance frenzy driven by the artificial intelligence arms race is pushing the global investment-grade bond market to its limits. On July 13 local time, US semiconductor stocks and AI concept shares suff…

Climate

Rates Outlook: So How Bad Could This Whole Thing Get?

At the end of one chaotic year and the threshold of another that could be equally turbulent, Hawaiʻi’s people, institutions and economy remain fairly resilient, though vulnerable to developments beyond its borders. The …

Climate

Bond Yields Rocket to 2-Decade High as Global Selloff Deepens

Global stocks came under renewed pressure on Tuesday, with technology shares bearing the brunt of selling as investors braced for a more aggressive Federal Reserve stance on inflation, even as oil prices continued their…

Climate

Rates Outlook: Curve influencers

Sam Azzarello: What's next for markets and the global economy after a year defined by escalating tariffs, persistent geopolitical tensions, and the rise of artificial intelligence across industries?

Climate

A Tale of 2 Yield Curves: Treasury Signals Clash on the Outlook

The bond giant's CIO for non-traditional strategies says Treasury yields look attractive and the Fed will hold rates steady through year-end, putting Pimco squarely at odds with futures markets pricing in a coin-flip ch…

Climate

Warsh Guides Forward Without Forward Guidance

Editor's Note: At 10 PM Beijing time on August 28, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium, marking his first address at this prominent annual gathering sin…

Climate

10-Year Treasury Yield Eyes 5% as Rate Hike Risk Builds

This is going to be a fairly important week for markets, given the amount of economic data coming and where rates closed. On Friday, the two-year moved up by almost 13 basis points and the ten-year by nearly six, follow…

Climate

Foreign Bonds Take the Lead Over US Fixed Income in 2026

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced…

Climate

Hawkish ECB Not Helping French Government Bonds

As eurozone inflation plunges citizens into a cost-of-living crisis, the ECB is sticking to its policy of cheap credit and adding a new bad-debt incentive for reckless governments.

Climate

Rates Outlook: Why 4.75% Is a Natural Fit for the 10-Year Yield

The 10Y gilt yield hit new highs on the back of inflation and political risks, but investors should not ignore the role of the Bank of England’s QT in this. We estimate the 2s10s GBP curve steepened by 60bp more than th…

Climate

A Mixed Year for Bonds Ahead of Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech

The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, scheduled for August 27-29, represents one of the most closely watched central banking events of the year. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver his first keynot…

Climate

Rates Outlook: An Uneasy Calm

The Federal Reserve's interest rate lift-off in December did little to disturb the uneasy calm that had reigned in financial markets in late 2015. But the new year had a turbulent start, featuring one of the worst stock…

Climate

Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech Puts Bond Yields on Notice

The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, scheduled for August 27-29, represents one of the most closely watched central banking events of the year. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver his first keynot…

Climate

Buybacks Vs. Bond Bears: The High‑Stakes Standoff Continues

The brinkmanship between the U.S. government and the bond market continued on Thursday following the Treasury Department’s announcement the day before that it would double repurchases of longer-dated Treasuries in a b…

Climate

Treasury Buybacks Put Bond Market Liquidity Front and Center

August 20, 2026, 12:44 AM EDT. Samsung Electronics is preparing a shareholder-return programme worth more than 100 trillion won, or about $71.75 billion, according to Korean media cited by Reuters. The plan is expected …

Climate

3% Real TIPS Yields: Boring but Valuable

Investors face a challenging environment during the second half of 2022, needing to navigate rising interest rates, high inflation and resurfacing geopolitical risks. In the near term, gold will likely remain reactive t…

Climate

Long-End Risks, ECB Conviction and UK Data Tests

Lower Fed hike odds have calmed front-end USD rates, but long-end Treasuries remain vulnerable to higher real yields, fiscal supply pressure and yen spillovers. In Europe, markets remain focused on a September ECB hike,…

Climate

Lacy Hunt Turns Bearish Bonds: Studying His Reversal

Economist Lacy Hunt has been a bond bull longer than most money managers have been in the business. Recently, he made a surprising U-turn on his bullish stance. The following paragraph opens his Second Quarter Review an…