Introduction: UK consumer confidence up, but is 'Burnham bounce' fading?
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
UK consumer confidence has surprisingly hit a two-year high this morning, but the recovery could be faltering as inflation climbs.
Research group GfK has reported that its Consumer Confidence Barometer rose to -13 in September, a rise of one point compared with August, with people more optimistic about their personal finances and the wider economy.
That’s the highest level since August 2024, just after the last general election, and higher than forecast.
Encouragingly, this is also the first time since summer 2024 that consumer confidence has risen for three months in a row.
But less cheeringly, consumer confidence is still in negative territory, and there are signs that the recovery could be faltering.
Over the summer, UK businesses reported a “Burnham bounce” after the new prime minister took the wheel from Sir Keir Starmer, and announced measures including a cap on bus fares and a discount on business rates for pubs, clubs and live music venues.
Bloomberg suggests GfK’s data shows this recovery is running out of steam, as higher energy costs push up inflation.
Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK, explains:
The return of higher inflation removes one of the strongest positives seen in previous months. So, while the headline score continues to improve, confidence is still firmly in negative territory. With inflation, energy and fuel prices rising, could we soon see consumer sentiment falter?”
GfK reports that consumers are less willing to buy big-ticket items this month, and more keen to save money instead.
The only measure to fall this month was the Major Purchase Index, down one point, which comes as we head into the important Golden Quarter for retailers. The Savings Index rose five points, which, although not used in our headline score, may indicate that those who can are thinking of building a financial buffer.
10.15am BST: Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey appears on a panel at the Monetary Economics Conference
1.30pm BST: US durable goods orders data
3pm BST: University of Michigan’s US consumer sentiment index
After a choppy day yesterday, UK goverment bonds are recovering this morning.
With prices rising, the yields (or rate of return) on both short and long-dated gilts have dropped.
Two-year gilt yields, which are used to price mortgages, are down 5 basis points (0.05 of a percentage point) to 4.85%, while 10-year gilt yields are down 2.5bps to 5.35%.
French president Emmanuel Macron is leading the fight against the imposition of a ban on US diesel exports.
Macron has revealed that he told Donald Trump a 90-day diesel export ban reportedly being considered by the White House was a bad idea, Politico reports.
“I think all the experts around him and all the American refiners can only tell him the same thing.
This decision would be a bad one — not just for the rest of the world, but for the U.S. economy as well.”
Trump is reportedly considering a 90-day export ban to provide a temporary respite from high pump prices for US households before the midterm election.
As we reported yesterday, the EU has warned Donald Trump against plans to ban US diesel exports to the global market, saying the move would negatively affect Europe and the US.
Next month’s budget has the potential to either strengthen the recovery in consumer confidence, or pop it.
PatMcFadden, work and pensions secretary, has claimed that chancellor John Healey’s budget on 28 October could help to build confidence in the economy.
“I’ve known John for decades. I know he’ll approach this in a really responsible way.
“He will want to say to the country, the business community and the financial world that this is a stable government and Britain is a good place to invest in business and to start and grow a business.”
The oil price is dropping, following reports that the US and Iran are discussing a phased deal to reopen the strait of Hormuz.
Reuters reported that US and Iranian negotiators in New York are exploring “a phased path out of war” that would involve Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Washington lifting its economic blockade of Iran.
However, the talks “face a big obstacle” as neither side wants to be the first to surrender its leverage.
But still… Brent crude is down 1.25% today at $105.30 a barrel.