Markets

The 'Magnificent Seven' is no more. Time to pick winners and losers as group's correlation breaks down

Times News policy-spillover note (2026-10-28): The "Magnificent Seven" doesn't trade as a monolith anymore, challenging investors to be more discerning when picking through the market's biggest stocks… Primary source: original at CNBC Top News (cnbc.com).

· CNBC Top News

The 'Magnificent Seven' is no more. Time to pick winners and losers as group's correlation breaks down

The "Magnificent Seven" doesn't trade as a monolith anymore, challenging investors to be more discerning when picking through the market's biggest stocks rather than viewing them as a single trade.

CNBC calculated the rolling 60-day correlation of daily returns for each of the 21 unique pairs among the Magnificent Seven — which comprises Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla.

The average of those correlations recently fell to its lowest level in more than a decade, suggesting the group is trading less like a cohesive block than it has historically. This marks a departure for a group that's often discussed together because of its size and influence over the broader market.

The companies "all have different exposures to AI," said Gil Luria, analyst at D.A. Davidson. "This requires a much more granular approach to which of the largest mega-caps an investor wants to own as opposed to just owning them wholesale," he added.

The dislocation has led the group as a whole to lag the broader market. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) is up 7% year to date, while the S&P 500 has gained 12%. Tesla and Meta are the two names in the cohort down in 2026, while Nvidia and Apple are the only ones outperforming the S&P 500.

Microsoft and Alphabet report results after the bell Wednesday. Amazon will post earnings after the close on Thursday.

The growing divergence among the Magnificent Seven reflects investors' deeper focus on companies' "independent fundamental growth drivers," said Thomas DiFazio, ETF strategist at Roundhill Investments. "They have varying levels of success, when you put them in the totem pole of AI winners and losers."

He added that "investors are focusing on the micro factors," such as company-specific news that can signal whether the business can flourish in the AI world.

For Microsoft, the market is watching Azure's cloud growth. For Meta, it's assessing the potential of its consumer AI applications. Apple's appeal is with its devices and services. Meanwhile, Alphabet's success is tied to its Google Cloud business, its AI model Gemini and its leadership in Search. Close eyes are also on Amazon's cloud business growth, while the market is centered on evaluating the durability of demand for Nvidia's chips. For Tesla, it's less about electric vehicles and more about its pivot to AI, robotics and robotaxis —potentially in a merger with SpaceX.

"These are the best stocks to still be in, but they're starting to kind of separate and go in their own direction," said Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets.

The dispersion within the Magnificent Seven doesn't point to deteriorating fundamentals. Overall, Wall Street remains largely bullish on each individual stock. For Apple, 58% of analysts have a buy or strong buy rating on the stock, according to LSEG. That number is a whopping 97% for Amazon; 92% for Alphabet; 97% on Microsoft; 89% on Meta; 97% on Nvidia; and 50% on Tesla.

Apple

Apple illustrates how investors' assessment of AI exposure has shifted.

The iPhone maker, which had been punished for not spending high levels of capital expenditures in the AI arms race, is now being rewarded for it. In 2025, Apple was the second worst-performing Magnificent Seven name, returning 8.9%. Amazon was in last place, gaining 5.2% in 2025. Alphabet was the best performer, delivering 65.8%.

In 2026, however, Apple's 28% gain leads the Mag-7 pack.

Performance of each Magnificent Seven stock

"The one stock that got criticized the most over the last two years about not having an AI strategy is now the leader of this cohort, and that is Apple," Woods said.

"They're continuing to hit on what they do best, which is the products and the App Store," Woods explained. To him, Apple is the "consistent tortoise of this race."

D.A. Davidson's Luria described Apple as "the place to hide from the AI trade," while Woods referred to the company as a "technology utility" and a "consumer staple" since its devices and services are embedded into everyday life.

Nvidia

Nvidia has been volatile lately amid concerns about the durability of chip demand and investor anxiety over a pullback in capex spending.

As the biggest stock in the semiconductor sector – and the world – the stock is bound to be subject to massive price swings. The stock peaked on Oct. 6 but since then, shares have fallen by over 13%.

Still, Woods said its valuation is "relatively [and] historically cheap." Right now, the stock is in a "digestion phase." He favors Nvidia's setup, pointing to continued demand for chips.

Alphabet

Alphabet's chart has weakened following its run from March to May, according to Woods, putting greater emphasis on earnings and guidance come Wednesday evening when the company reports its third quarter earnings.

While its search business remains a strength, Woods is watching competition from other AI platforms and whether the stock can gain upward momentum.

Amazon

Amazon has been "slow and steady," but the stock's trend hasn't been consistent, said Woods. "It's not doing poorly; it's not doing great. It's just there."

The key for the company is its cloud computing business, Amazon Web Services, which deliver a majority of its profits. Revenue from Amazon's cloud segment grew 37% year over year in the second quarter. While growth is solid, it lagged Azure's 43% year over year growth last quarter and Google Cloud, which jumped 82% year over year last quarter.

Meta Platforms

Meta stock surged in September on excitement over its new personal AI assistant Muse after App Store downloads were off the charts.

Roundhill's DiFazio noted how investors are keen on how Muse adoption could translate into revenue and profits and credited the new consumer application with potentially helping the stock's trajectory.

But after the Facebook and Instagram parent reported negative free cash flow while raising the floor of its full-year capital expenditures in its third quarter earnings last week, the stock turned negative over concerns that attracrtive returns on all its capex could be further away.

Microsoft

Microsoft has recovered from earlier concerns about AI disrupting its software business, but now faces a technical test, according to Woods.

"The fears that AI was going to disrupt this thought were definitely overblown," Woods said.

He identified the $530-$550 range as resistance and said that selling pressure could potentially threaten further gains.

DiFazio identified Azure as the growth driver investors are watching.

Upcoming earnings and guidance, set to be delivered on Wednesday evening, can help determine whether the stock can break above that range.

Tesla

When discussing Magnificent Seven stocks, Tesla "has been left in the dust," Woods said. Tesla's investment case increasingly rests on opportunities beyond electric cars, including robotics, he said.

D.A. Davidson's Luria is also skeptical of its inclusion in the Magnificent Seven, arguing its valuation carries an "Elon premium."

— CNBC's Nick Wells contributed reporting.