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Supermajor Earnings: Exxon & Chevron’s Impact on ETF Market

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Supermajor Earnings: Exxon & Chevron’s Impact on ETF Market

The two largest U.S. integrated supermajors, Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX), reported second-quarter profits that surged on rising oil prices due to renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. With these two firms accounting for large allocations in many energy ETFs, their earnings serve as a primary catalyst for the entire energy ETF landscape.

Key Takeaways

  • ExxonMobil reported EPS of $3.52 (missed estimates due to refining challenges), but it beat revenue expectations at $116.02 billion. Conversely, Chevron posted EPS of $6.06 on revenue of $70 billion, beating consensus estimates with a significant profit increase in its refining and E&P segments.
  • Profits for both integrated majors surged due to rising oil prices and higher refining margins, driven by renewed geopolitical instability in the Middle East.
  • Exxon and Chevron represent top holdings in major energy ETFs such as the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) and the Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE), making their earnings performance a primary driver for the broader energy sector.

Geopolitical Tensions Driving Earnings

Exxon reported EPS of $3.52 on revenue of $116.02 billion, missing consensus EPS estimates of $3.60 and beating revenue estimates of $97.8 billion. Management attributes the EPS miss to a difficulty in the company’s refining business. Exxon CEO Darren Woods explained that the company faced challenges in forecasting prices due to the disruption in global crude and product markets, according to CNBC reporting.

Beyond the headline numbers, Exxon’s upstream production hit its highest levels in more than 20 years, excluding disruptions in the Middle East. The company’s worldwide production reached 4.5 million barrels per day, with the Permian Basin, Texas, and New Mexico seeing record outputs. Despite the price forecasting difficulties, Exxon’s refining business announced earnings of $5.5 billion in the second quarter, a complete reversal from the reported loss of $1.3 billion last quarter. The turnaround is driven by strong Gulf Coast utilization and record diesel production, according to CNBC analysis. Exxon stock is down roughly 1.85% since the morning earnings announcement.

Chevron delivered a strong quarter, posting its highest revenue in four years, according to Stockwits analysis. The company reported EPS of $6.06 and revenue of $70 billion, beating analyst expectations of $5.56 and $62 billion, respectively. This was largely driven by surging oil prices and supply disruptions tied to the continuing Middle East conflicts.

The oil major reported strong growth across its upstream and downstream business. Chevron’s refining segment saw a 500% year-over-year profit increase from $737 million to $4.9 billion. Meanwhile, the company’s exploration and production (E&P) profits climbed to $7.9 billion from $5.4 billion in second-quarter 2025 earnings. The company has minimally gained 1.74% since the report.

Powering the Energy Sector

With Exxon and Chevron serving as the two largest U.S. integrated majors by market cap, the two companies’ earnings performance exerts significant influence on the broader energy ETF market. The State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) holds Exxon and Chevron as top holdings, combining for over 36% of total allocations. Tracking the S&P Energy Select Sector Index, the fund provides market-cap weighted exposure to energy companies in the S&P 500. XLE has slightly climbed 0.15% following the earnings reports, with the fund returning 33.68% in 2026 and receiving inflows of $3.04 billion since the start of the year.

In the Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE), tracking the MSCI US Investable Market Energy 25/50 Index, Exxon and Chevron make up just under 35% of the total portfolio weight. VDE provides broad market-cap weighted exposure to over 100 U.S. equities in the energy sector. The fund has gained 0.17% since the report, but has delivered a 33.70% year-to-date return with inflows of $733.92 million over the same period.

Drilling Down on Texas

Focusing on oil producers in Texas, the Texas Capital Texas Oil Index ETF (OILT) holds Exxon as its top holding at a 7.64% weight, with Chevron sitting at a slightly lower weighting of 4.57%. Tracking the Alerian Texas Weighted Oil and Gas Index, the fund provides economic-value-weighted exposure to companies that actively extract oil and natural gas within the state of Texas. For inclusion in the index, constituents must be responsible for more than 0.1% of the annual state oil and gas production of Texas over the past 10 years. OILT climbed roughly 1.08% following the reports and has gained 32.15% so far in 2026.

Dividend Powerhouses

While energy-specific ETFs show Exxon and Chevron’s influence on sector-level performance, these companies play a large role in many dividend-focused ETFs. Exxon is the top holding in the iShares Core High Dividend ETF (HDV) at a 7.68% portfolio weight, while Chevron is the third largest allocation at a 5.78% weight. Tracking the Morningstar Dividend Yield Focus Index, HDV provides exposure to approximately 75 dividend-yielding U.S. equities. The fund has traded flat since the earnings announcements and has returned 19.38% this year, while receiving $670.02 million in new assets over the same period.

Exxon and Chevron are top holdings in HDV due to massive free cash flow generation and consistent annual dividend increases. Exxon has raised its annual dividend payments for 43 years consecutively, while Chevron has raised annual dividends for 39 straight years. Their unmatched reliability makes Exxon and Chevron a staple in numerous dividend-oriented strategies.

Doubling Down on Energy

For investors seeking amplified exposure to Exxon and Chevron’s performance, the Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2X ETF (ERX) provides 200% daily leveraged exposure to large-cap U.S. energy companies by tracking the Energy Select Sector Index. Exxon and Chevron are top holdings in ERX collectively making up over 30% of the fund’s weight. ERX has gained 0.33% since the earnings announcements and currently has $226.3 million in assets.

Specifically looking at Exxon, the Direxion Daily XOM Bull 2X ETF (XOMX) offers 200% daily leveraged exposure to the underlying performance of Exxon. With Exxon’s EPS coming in lower than expected, XOMX has declined roughly 3.88% since the company reported.

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