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Euro flat after losing early gains on Monday

EUR/USD trades lower near the 1.1370 area on Monday, surrendering earlier gains as investors remain cautious ahead of key Eurozone growth figures and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision.

Finance

British Pound: Growth slowdown and higher rates – BNP Paribas

BNP Paribas strategists expect United Kingdom (UK) growth to slow to 1% in 2026 from 1.3% in 2025, with renewed inflation pressures from the war in Iran pushing inflation to 3.2%. They now anticipate a 25 bp Bank of Eng…

Finance

WTI Oil drops more than 7% as US, Iran pause strikes

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil extends its decline on Monday, trading around $82.60 per barrel at the time of writing, down 7.4% on the day. Crude Oil opened the week with a sharp bearish gap after the United Stat…

Finance

Bank of England: Higher bar seen for rate hikes - ING

ING’s James Smith expects the Bank of England to keep rates on hold on 30 July and sees a prolonged pause extending through 2026. New forecasts are likely to show UK inflation peaking near 3%, below the 4% level seen as…

Finance

CEE FX: Softer geopolitics aids high beta – ING

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky expects upcoming Czech and Hungarian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data to confirm improving growth momentum, while Polish inflation should re-accelerate on higher fuel prices. Taborsky argues th…

Finance

Singapore Dollar: MAS signals inflation concern – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay notes Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) unexpectedly tightened policy for a second meeting, slightly increasing the Singapore Dollar (SGD) Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) slope and s…

Finance

Federal Reserve: Extended pause but hike risk rising – UOB

UOB strategists expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep the Fed Funds Target Rate at 3.50%–3.75% at the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and maintain a base case of an extended pause through 2026, with…

Finance

British Pound: Fiscal risks cap upside against US Dollar – BNY

Geoff Yu at BNY argues that the Bank of England (BoE) is likely to keep policy unchanged despite energy-driven price pressures, as markets have already tightened financial conditions. He sees the United Kingdom's (UK) c…

Finance

Russian Ruble: CBR credibility risks after cut – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose reports the Russian central bank cut its key rate to 14.0% despite raising its 2026 inflation forecast and projecting stagflationary macro conditions. He argues the easing cycle suggests politi…

Finance

British Pound: BoE seen on hold as risks linger – UOB

UOB strategists note GBP/USD edged up to 1.3326, with Gilts caught between fiscal risks from Prime Minister Burnham’s debut plans and the Oil price shock. A Bloomberg poll and UOB economist Lee Sue Ann both expect the B…

Finance

US Dollar: Fed uncertainty tempers USD strength – MUFG

MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes the US Dollar has softened as Middle East tensions ease and Brent Oil retreats below USD90, reducing energy-driven inflation fears. The correction in energy prices has slightly lowered market-im…

Finance

Oil: Lower prices ease inflation risks – OCBC

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that easing Oil prices, helped by reduced Iran–US tensions, are bringing crude closer to their base case of a gradual downtrend. They argue lower Oil should relieve inflati…

Finance

US Dollar: Fed hold and data support – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) hold and a goldilocks-like United States (US) macro backdrop to keep the US Dollar (USD) supported in coming days. Haddad highlights f…

Finance

US Dollar: Fed communication key for path – OCBC

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that markets have repriced the risk of a July Fed hike higher after Oil-driven inflation worries, but still expect no move. A hawkish hold would keep the US Dollar (US…