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JP Morgan: Toto, I Don’t Think It’s the Fed Anymore

The upward march in bond yields continues to drive the market narrative. But the logic has shifted. The initial move began in the early summer with a Federal Reserve that investors initially perceived as hawkish, but a …

World

Is Warsh Setting Up a Policy Error?

Bill Dudley started his career on Wall Street at Goldman Sachs as its chief U.S. economist, notably advising bond traders on the economy and inflation, and what the Federal Reserve would be likely to do on interest rate…

World

September ECB Cheat Sheet: Pick Your Poison

The ECB must decide which risk is the lesser evil: overtightening (and potentially upsetting European bonds) or underestimating inflation. A 25bp hike is widely expected on Thursday, and we think the Bank may strike a m…