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Equinor ASA Reports Q3 2026 Financial Results and Increases Production Guidance

Times News, политика и рыночные эффекты (2026-10-28): DATE CALL PARTICIPANTS Senior Vice President, Investor Relations - Brd Glad Pedersen CFO - Torgrim Reitan TAKEAWAYS Adjusted Operating Income -- $12.4… Первоисточник — оригинал Nasdaq Market Structure (nasdaq.com).

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DATE

CALL PARTICIPANTS

  • Senior Vice President, Investor Relations - Brd Glad Pedersen
  • CFO - Torgrim Reitan

TAKEAWAYS

  • Adjusted Operating Income -- $12.4 billion, representing nearly twice the level from the same quarter last year due to higher commodity prices and strong refining margins.
  • Cash Flow From Operations After Tax -- $8.1 billion for the quarter, bringing the year-to-date total to $21.8 billion.
  • Adjusted EPS -- $1.20, including a negative impact from foreign exchange movements within net financial items.
  • Production Growth Guidance -- 4% for the full year, increased from a previous target of 3% due to high operational regularity and strong execution.
  • Quarterly Dividend -- $0.39 per share, approved by the Board as part of the third quarter capital distribution.
  • Share Buyback Tranche -- $1.13 billion, representing the fourth tranche and bringing total 2026 buybacks to $3 billion.
  • Renewable Power Production -- 26% increase, primarily driven by production from the Dogger Bank project.
  • Empire Wind Progress -- 80% complete, though first power is now expected in the first half of 2027 following delays in turbine installation.
  • Investment Tax Credits -- $2.5 billion total expectation, with $2 billion projected for 2027 and $500 million for 2028.
  • Organic Capital Expenditure -- $3.3 billion for the quarter, with the full-year 2026 guidance maintained at around $13 billion.
  • Cash and Cash Equivalents -- $24 billion, strengthening the balance sheet and supporting the company's active cash management strategy.
  • Net Debt Ratio -- 3.8% at quarter end, with management expecting this to reach zero by year-end at current forward commodity prices.
  • Adjusted Net Debt Ratio -- 10% or higher, when adjusting for the six-month tax lag in Norway and 2026 earnings.
  • Tax Installments -- $6.2 billion paid in Norway during the quarter, with $9.3 billion in payments expected for the fourth quarter.
  • New Field Production -- 70,000 barrels per day on the Norwegian continental shelf, helping to offset natural decline in existing fields.
  • International Production -- 5% increase, driven by performance at the Odudu and Bacalhau fields as Bacalhau reached its production plateau.
  • CFFO Guidance -- $29 billion for the full year 2026, based on current forward commodity prices and the updated production target.
  • Johan Sverdrup Performance -- 11% year-to-date decline, which represents the lower end of management's initial 10% to 20% guidance range.
  • Gas Exposure Strategy -- 70% day ahead and 30% month ahead, maintained to capture volatility in the European natural gas market.
  • Titan Asset Retirement -- $105 million impact, related to an asset retirement obligation in the E&P U.S. segment.
  • Adura Dividend -- $225 million received as a cash dividend during the third quarter.
  • Cost Reduction Progress -- 10% underlying cost reduction target, currently facing upward pressure from currency effects and higher energy consumption costs.

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RISKS

  • Reitan stated, "We see an increase in the number of incidents since last year," noting that while long-term trends are positive, personal injuries remain an area of focused concern.
  • Reitan stated, "This is a bit later than planned," regarding the schedule for first power at Empire Wind, which has been moved to the first half of 2027 due to installation delays.
  • Reitan stated, "We are somewhat behind due to factors we do not control," referring to the 10% underlying cost reduction target being pressured by foreign exchange and energy price volatility.

SUMMARY

Equinor ASA(NYSE:EQNR) reported increased full-year production guidance and strong financial results driven by high commodity prices and record refining performance. Management reported that the company is advancing its strategic initiatives, including the acquisition of a stake in the Lackawanna Energy Center in the U.S. and bringing Shell into the Bay Du Nord project in Canada. The board approved a quarterly cash dividend and the final tranche of its 2026 share buyback program, bringing the total annual buyback commitment to a targeted level. Financial performance was further supported by international production growth and high regularity on the Norwegian continental shelf despite natural field declines.

  • CFO Reitan reported that Johan Sverdrup has consistently exceeded expectations, stating, "Year to date, we see a 11% decline in Johan Sverdrup," which is at the low end of the expected range.
  • Management clarified the new share buyback framework for 2027, which will target $2 billion to $4 billion annually when oil prices are between $60 and $80 per barrel.
  • The company is expanding its exploration portfolio, with Reitan noting, "In Angola, we have recently been involved in 2 discoveries," alongside new acreage awards in Brazil and Namibia.
  • Management noted that European gas storage is currently at 73%, the lowest level since 2011, which contributes to market vulnerability and price volatility.
  • Regarding the 2027 production outlook, Reitan stated that output is expected to be higher than 2025 levels, supported by ramp-ups at the Bacalhau, Rosebank, and Jackdaw fields.

INDUSTRY GLOSSARY

  • NCS: Norwegian continental shelf, the primary area for the company's oil and gas production.
  • CFFO: Cash flow from operations, a measure of the cash generated by a company's regular business activities.
  • MBTU: Million British Thermal Units, a standard unit of measurement for natural gas.
  • ITC: Investment Tax Credit, a federal tax incentive in the U.S. for certain renewable energy projects.
  • FID: Final Investment Decision, the point at which a company officially commits to funding a major project.
  • E&P: Exploration and Production, the segment of the energy industry focused on finding and extracting oil and gas.
  • M&P: Marketing, Midstream & Processing, the segment involved in transporting, refining, and selling energy products.
  • PGM Market: A reference to the PJM Interconnection, the regional transmission organization that coordinates the movement of wholesale electricity in parts of the U.S.

Full Conference Call Transcript

Operator: Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Equinor Third Quarter 26 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. Star 1 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star 1 and 1 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your host today, Bård Glad Pedersen, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Bård Pedersen: Thank you very much, operator, and thank you all for joining in on the presentation of our third quarter results. I am here together with our CFO, Torgrim Reitan who will take us through the results before we start the Q&A. And we will complete the entire session within 1 hour as we used to do. So with that, I hand it to you, Torgrim.

Torgrim Reitan: Thank you very much, Bård. And good morning, and thank you for joining us. Before I get to our results, you now see the photo of our Mong's refinery. Mongstad delivered record result this quarter, driven by excellent operational performance, capturing very strong refining margins. So I will share more about M&P's contribution as we now turn to the quarterly results. At our Capital Markets Day, we presented our plans to deliver more energy growing cash flow and superior returns. During the third quarter, we progressed in line with our strategy in The U. S, we signed an agreement to acquire a stake in the Lackawanna Energy Center.

This acquisition strengthens our position in an attractive U.S. power market and complements our strong gas position in the area. We also, the Bay Du Nord project in Canada is moving forward. In October, we brought Shell into the project, and we are very happy to have them as our partner. as we move toward a final investment decision early next year. We also added more exploration opportunities. In Angola, we have recently been involved in 2 discoveries: We have also been awarded attractive new acreage, both in Angola and Brazil. In addition, we entered Namibia with plans to start drilling already this quarter.

On the Norwegian continental shelf, we entered into a strategic exploration collaboration with Aker BP and Vor Energi. And our ambition is to mature and test up to 25 prospects with stand alone potential over the next years. This quarter, we delivered a production growth of 2%. And year to date, we have delivered a production growth of almost 5%. So based on strong operations, we are now increasing our guiding for the year from 3% to around 4% growth. With higher production, higher prices and exceptional refining contribution, we delivered strong financial results.

Adjusted operating income was $12.4 billion before tax, Cash flow from operations after tax was $8.1 billion in the quarter, bringing the year to date total to $21.8 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were $1.20 This includes a negative impact from net financial items, mainly driven by foreign exchange movements. The Board has approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.39 per share. And a fourth tranche of the share buyback program of up to $1.13 billion So this brings total share buybacks for 2026 to $3 billion a number which we increased at our Capital Markets Day. Before we go deeper into our financial results, let us start with safety. Which is our highest priority.

We have a long term trend with strong improvements of our safety results. But we see an increase in the number of incidents since last year. We are still seeing too many personal injuries, and this remains important focus for us. We will continue to work systematically so that everyone working for Equinor returns home safely every day. Equity production increased by 2% compared with the same quarter last year. On the Norwegian continental shelf, production was stable. Natural decline was offset by new fields delivering around 70 thousand barrels per day. The planned turnaround program is completed and well executed.

The combined international production increased by 5%, This is driven by Oduro and Bakalau, And we are happy to say Bacalow is now producing at plateau. This more than offset the divestments of Peregrino and Argentina as well as Lower U. S. Offshore production due to planned turnaround activity. Renewable power production increased by 26%, driven by Dogger Bank. Empire Wind is now around 80% complete. Most of the remaining project scope relates to off shore turbine installation, which is expected to start next year. This is a bit later than planned, with first power during the first half of 2027.

However, there is no change to total CapEx and the recognition of ITC And the recognition of the ITC will remain as previously communicated with the majority in 2027. Now to our financial results. Adjusted operating income for the group was $12.4 billion before tax. Almost twice the level from the same quarter last year. While commodity prices are cyclical, it is important to focus on what we can control. Stable operations, laser sharp execution, and cost discipline. E and P Norway, with stable production and E and P International with growing production each benefited from higher realized prices. International results were also affected by the timing of liftings.

In E and P US, higher realized liquids prices were offset by turnaround activity at Caesar Tonga, and $105 million impact related to the Titan Asset Retirement publication. Excuse me. MMP delivered well above guidance. Driven by strong refining performance, strong results from LNG, also contributed positively, while the result was negatively impacted by shipping derivatives. Power delivered a result close to zero. Net impairments of $485 million impacted our net operating income. And this includes impairments at Stuttgart, partly offset by a reversal at Martin Linge. Then a few words about costs. We have momentum behind reducing underlying cost by 10% this year.

However, we are somewhat behind due to factors we do not control, such as foreign exchange effects and higher energy consumption costs. Cost discipline remains important also in periods of higher commodity prices. So now to cash flow. This quarter, cash flow from operations was $14.7 billion During the quarter, we paid 2 tax installments in Norway, totaling $6.2 billion In the fourth quarter, we expect to pay 3 tax installments totaling $9.3 billion. In August, we increased our tax payments for the second half of 2026 due to the sustained high price environment. So this will even out tax payments between the second half of 2026 and the first half of 2027.

However, prices have continued to increase, and we currently expect tax payments in the first half of 2027 to be higher than the second half of 2026. Organic capital expenditure was $3.3 billion in the quarter. We received a cash dividend from Adura of $225 million The strong financial results have further strengthened our balance sheet. We ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $24 billion Our net debt ratio decreased to 3.8%. At current forward prices, we expect our net debt ratio to be around zero at year-end. But this is important, this does not include the effect of the 6 month tax lag in Norway.

If we adjust for this, and assume that tax payments in 2026 fully reflects the 2026 earnings, The year end net debt ratio will be somewhat above 10%. So finally, to our outlook. For 2026, we continue to expect organic CapEx of around $13 billion I mentioned that currency effects put some upward pressure on costs This is also the case for CapEx. On the other side, we see some schedule effects. Including for Empire Wind, as I mentioned, that pushes some CapEx into next year. As I have covered, we are increasing our production guiding to around 4% for the year. Then turning to capital distribution. For 2026, we are delivering in line with what we have said.

At Capital Markets Day, we also put forward a new framework for capital that will be implemented next year. And I would like to take this opportunity to remind you on how this will work in practice. So cash dividend remains our first priority. We expect to increase the quarterly cash dividend by more than 5% on an annual basis. We did that last year we did it this year, and this is what you should expect going forward as well. We also introduced a framework for share buybacks, of $2 billion to $4 billion per year. When oil prices are between $60 and $80 and European gas prices are between $7 and $11 per MBTU.

In February, we will announce the first of 4 tranches for 2027, and not an annual number an annual number as we did in the past. With realized prices, within the range in the previous quarter, each tranche will be from 500 million to $1 billion summing up to a total of 2 billion to $4 billion per year. Within the price range, you should expect the buyback level to be fairly linear. So if prices are in the middle of the range, you should expect buybacks also in the middle of the range. However, as it looks now, prices could be outside of the ranges.

And if prices are above, and particularly if they stay above for an extended period of time, we have the opportunity to do more. But in this scenario, you should not expect a linear relationship. And we want to avoid being too cyclical in our buybacks. So we will use high price environments to strengthen the balance sheet and ensure that we can continue investing in profitable projects while honoring our dividend commitments also in a low price environment. And of course, we will come back to you on this topic in February. So for now, I hand the word back to you, Bård, and I look very much forward to your questions.

Bård Pedersen: Thank you, Torgrim. We are then ready to the Q and A, and we have a good list already. But let me remind you that if you want to sign up for a question, you can press 11.

Operator: The first question will be from Christopher from Bank of America. Christopher, please go ahead with your question.

Chris: Yeah. Thank you very much and for providing the additional clarity to him on how you are going to treat the share buybacks going forward. I have 2 quick questions that I want to tackle upfront. Firstly, maybe you can go into a bit more detail around the source of the increased production guidance for the year. And go into a little bit more detail on how the declining Norwegian fields are doing relative to expected startups and ramp ups internationally. And then as a second question, I realize your slide pack does not repeat what you have presented before, but I remember a CFFO guidance for the year at close to 30 billion at your higher commodity price deck.

And it looks to me like both Irene and TTF, if not Henri Hub, are today significantly above that high commodity price deck that you used at the time to get to 30 billion. So maybe you wanna give us a little bit of a rule of thumb or an update on where you stand, in terms of your full year expectations also reflecting the fact that you have, changed your tax, cadence. Your tax payment cadence. Thank you.

Torgrim Reitan: Thanks, Christopher. Very good question. Questions, I must say. So let me start with the production So the production for the year 2026 has overall been stronger than what we have expected. So this comes from strong operations and very high regularity across the portfolio. And also that the decline on Johan Sverdrup is to the very lower end on what we guided at. We also have no buffer now at plateau. Contributing well towards the end of the year. So we are comfortable in sort of updating our production guidance for the 3 years. This is on the back of good execution and good operations.

Then I just want to use the opportunity to also talk about 2027 because 2026 is a rather you know, extraordinary year as such because we have a lot of production being. Ramping up on the back of the Norwegian tax package and also international start up. So I just want to use the opportunity to talk about 2027, because that is not going to be fully in line with the production in 2026. It is going to be higher than 2025 and sort of very much sort of building up to the towards 2000 and Turkey and the growth towards 2000 and Turkey.

The particular things to mention about 2027 is that Bacalhao is now on plateau and will contribute significantly. Rosebank and Jackdaw in the Adura portfolio will be producing and also Yggdrasil in Norway. So those are sort of the new elements in 2027. So 2027 is going to be also a very good year operationally and production wise, but of course, 2026 is an extraordinary year. Your second question, Christopher, was related to cash flow from operations. So at the Capital Markets Day, we gave a guidance for 2026 or at $25 billion and that was based on a price tag as far as I remember of $80 Irene and $15 gas, and prices are above that.

We are now looking at around $29 billion in cash flow of operations based on current forward prices as such. Just want to remind you, there is a significant tax leg coming out of these high prices. So we will pay quite a bit of the taxes associated with this high revenue in the first half of 27.

Operator: We are now ready for the next question, and that will be Henri Patricot from UBS. Henri, your mark is open. Please go ahead with your question.

Henri Patricot: Yes. Hello, everyone. Thanks for the update. I have 2 questions for you. The first 1 actually a follow-up on the production or 2 question. I mean, seems like for 2026, part of the outperformance is coming from Johan Sverdrup with the decline very much at the lower end of your expectations. So was that an extraordinary performance for 2026 to an extent? Should we expect perhaps a faster decline in 2027? At Johan Sverdrup. And then secondly, thank you for the comments on the shoulder returns. I wanted to follow-up on that and Stan, so you mentioned that it should not be linear as we go above $80 per barrel.

So think that has a slower increase in the buyback compared to the range between 60 and 80, but is there a point at which you have such a high net cash position that we would see a higher shell returns, or would you like to continue to deleverage and build up that cash position?

Torgrim Reitan: Okay. Very good, Henri. So thank you very much. So on production outlook and decline in general, on the NCS is broadly as We have a lot of activity into sort of you know, fighting the sign, and that is working very well. Johan Sverdrup has consistently delivered better than expected since we started. Both on plateau production and our ability to manage clients. Our people have done a fantastic job in sort of managing water management and drilling performance and reaching sort of the very, very high recovery rates in the field. So year to date, we see a 11% decline in Johan Sverdrup.

As you might remember, we said between 10 and 20 in the beginning of the year. Towards the end of the year, we will still be in the lower end of this range. Next year, you should expect a higher decline than that. That is not special in any way. This is the way the reservoir behave, but it will be higher next year than this year. Then on the on the share buyback and what to do when sort of we are out outside the framework. So in a sort of capital allocation, framework, there are priorities to this. 1 is the cash dividend, and we talked about this. The second 1 is reinvestment into our portfolio.

The third 1 is having a very strong balance sheet. And the flexible part is the share buyback. So there 2 things I would like to say in this behalf. When it comes to the net cash position of $24 billion yes, it is a high number. We have been running with a very high cash position for many, many years actually. And the way we manage this is in an active manner. So the cost of carry is actually very limited to this. So the cost of carrying this cash is very, very low. We will continue to run with a significant cash position.

Second point I would like to make and repeat is that let's not sort of current net debt ratio is 3.8%, of course very low. We just need to adjust for the tax lag that sort of disturbed this picture quite a bit in a higher price environment. So we expect that to be somewhat above 10% by year end. So that is the number I would like you to think about. When you think about the strength of our balance sheet. Last point I would like to make is that we intend to run with a very solid balance sheet.

A great company needs to be able to maneuver cycles in a good way, building balance sheets in a high price environment to ensure that we can sail very fast and effectively through lower price environment and create shareholder value also at that point in time. So that is the intention that we do have. Thank you.

Bård Pedersen: We are moving on to the next question, Alejandro Vigil from Santander. Please Alejandro, the microphone is open.

Alejandro Vigil: Yes. Thank you for taking my questions. The first question is about your outlook for the European natural gas market into this winter season. If you can elaborate a bit on the moving parts here. And second, in terms of, also related to the strong balance sheet and the. How you see the M&A opportunity, particularly looking at the big gap between European gas prices and The US natural gas price if there are additional opportunities there for your M&A strategy. Thank you.

Torgrim Reitan: Thank you very much, Alejandro. So first, on the European gas market. So the prices in Europe are high, above $30 per MB 2 and well above $90 per megawatt hour. So I think that illustrates, you know, a very high situation at that point. I will I will I will put a few comments around this. 1 is that the storage situation is currently at 73% in Europe. That is low. That is the lowest since 2011. And what that leads to is a vulnerable situation with very little flexibility for events and all of that. And you see that is sort of reflected in the price. The second thing I would like to mention is El Nino.

The phenomenon that many believes will lead to warmer winter That will be helpful for a tight energy market in Europe. But on the other hand, this is a well known element that is already priced into the market. So it is there. The third thing I would like to bring forward is Asian demand. So we see actually a fairly solid demand for LNG even at the current prices. So that is also something to note. And of course, the last 1 is everything around the hornless and the LNG. Very, very few cargoes are passing the straits. There are significant different risks related to a LNG ship than crude tanker.

So we expect the flow of LNG to be very, very limited. Until there is a solution to the conflict and safe to travel. So this leads to a situation where sort of it will be a vulnerable situation. It is a tight market. A cold spell will drive possibly significant volatility into this. But we do believe that, that sort of Europe will manage and we will do our utmost to deliver as much gas as we can. Last point I would like to make on this topic is that you know that we keep our exposure very much to the front.

So 70% of our gas exposure is on a day ahead basis and 30% on a month ahead basis. The reason for that is that we want the flexibility that gives, and we want exposure to the volatility as such. So in a volatile environment here, you can rest assured that the revenue finds its way to the P and L. Your second question is on M&A opportunities. M&A is a very natural part of the way we run our business. It is an integral part of hydrating the portfolio and delivering on the strategy. And you have seen over the years a very active environment, but pretty balanced you know, when sort of it comes to acquisition and divestments.

So going forward, going forward, you should also expect us to be active in this field A few data points It. Everything we do will be very much linked into the strategy that we put forward in June. There will be a very, very close alignment with that. And you might take some guidance from what we have done in the past to actually predict the future. And then if you look at what we have done over the last period, we have done several, you know, transactional of the Norwegian continent itself. That we will still continue with doing that. We made 2 acquisitions into Marcellus with EQT over the last few years on good terms.

And thirdly, we made an acquisition in The U. S, a gas fired power plant in Lackawanna. Lackawanna, it is called. We sort of ties the gas position, the gas market and the power market closely together. We do believe that those markets are going to be more integrated going forward. And we do think that in that space, we have a Roche to play. So that is sort of the thinking I would like you to take on when it comes to M and A.

Bård Pedersen: Thank you, Torgrim. Thank you, Alejandro, for those questions. Next 1 on my list is Michele Della Vigna from Goldman Sachs. Michele, please go ahead.

Michele Della Vigna: Thank you very much, and congratulations on a very strong and busy quarter. 2 questions I wanted to ask. The first 1 is what is your current premium in terms of crude realizations in Norway compared to the daily Irene and to the 1 month forward Irene, it looks like you are in a period of very, very strong realizations. And secondly, could you update us on Empire Wind when you think when you expect the start up? And if you still expect to receive the full $2 billion of tax assets through 2027? Thank you very much.

Torgrim Reitan: Thanks, Michele. And great. So, on the NCS, you know, we do see that there is a big demand for NCS oils in Europe. So we are selling all our oil into the European market from the Norwegian content itself. We are mostly selling it on sort of dated contracts. And less so on sort of the future markets. And in general, we receive premium from many qualities. A couple of examples is John Sverdrup, on average, $2 premium to brand, And Johan Kasberg, you know, up in the barns, which has a, you know, a very nice quality $8 premium as such. And then there will be single cargoes with higher premiums, of course.

So in general, sort of good prices, short sailing distances, which is important because shipping is, you know, a challenge many places in times like this. On Empire Wind, so despite sort of the stop work orders and all of that, we have been able to progress this and develop this, and it has not really slowed us slowed us much down. We are now 80% complete on Empire Wind. And we intend to start with installation of sort of the. You know, the turbine, the top side of the wind farm, if you like, just over Chris. We expect first power during the second half. Of this year. Yeah. I mean, first half. I apologize for that.

First half, but it is clearly very much so. Point being that sort of when we get first power, it sort of we are entitled to the investment tax credit that you asked for. And sort of the main season for and we are going to capitalize some of it based on our own operations. But mostly selling them and capitalizing on them. The season for that is typically in the autumn, where companies are aware of their tax position. So that is time the timing is actually very good for capitalizing this There are some $2.5 billion in investment tax credits. The phasing of this, we expect $2 billion in 2027 and the remaining in 2028.

So this is exactly what we have guided at earlier as well. So this is this, this is sort of on schedule for cash flow wise and investment wise. Yeah. Very clear. Thank you.

Bård Pedersen: Thank you, Michele. Next 1 on my list is Teodor Sveen Nilsen from Sparebanken Markets. Theodor, please go ahead.

Teodor Sveen Nilsen: Thank you for taking my questions. I am calling congrats on a very strong quarter. 2 questions. First on, to Liam, you mentioned the Lackawanna power plant. I am just curious about how is your appetite for increasing your downstream? Exports in general and the market area in Europe? Expect it to do anything more on the downstream side in Europe? Second question, that is a follow-up on a previous question on oil and gas market. How do you assess that potential for demand destruction in Europe at the current TTF gas prices? Thank you.

Torgrim Reitan: Thanks, Theodore. I struggle a little bit with the first question. Was that related to Lakavana?

Bård Pedersen: Theodor, if you could repeat that, you broke up a little bit. So if you could repeat the first question, please.

Teodor Sveen Nilsen: Sure. Sorry about that. Yeah. The first question, that is related to your appetite for increasing downstream exposure. Yeah.

Torgrim Reitan: Okay. Alright. Thanks, Theodore. So you know, on the first 1, you know, downstream exposure is. I mean, we will we will never go into sort of end user activities. And all of that. That has never been part of the strategy, and we have no intention to do that. However, we are sort of clearly interested in opportunities that can create value on a portfolio level in the company across power and natural gas. So you saw the acquisition in The US related to Lackawanna. We have a few other gas fired power plants in the portfolio. And sort of we do believe that is an important part of the strategy going forward.

I mean, we will clearly always be very cautious about how quickly we move forward on the in these areas. But we do believe over time that these 2 markets, you know, are moving closer and closer together. Then on the second question, which I do think was around the high gas prices in Europe and potentially demand destruction, clearly something that we monitor closely. And what you mentioned is sort of the long term negative effect of high prices, both within oil and natural gas. So we need to be prepared for that. There is some of that.

On the other side, what we do see is significant increase appetite for long term gas contracts related And customers that now clearly see natural gas as sort of a long term fuel for them, and on sort of a state level. That natural gas is going to be a very important part of energy security agenda, for states. So we see actually an increasing appetite for long term gas in addition. So that is also an aspect we to bring with us. Thank you.

Bård Pedersen: Okay. Thank you. Thank you, Theodor. Next 1 is Martijn Ratz, from Morgan Stanley. Martijn, please go ahead with your question.

Martijn Rats: Yes. Good morning. 2 remaining. I wanted to ask about MMP because the overall results of 893 million like, this is broadly as expected, it is even a little higher. But the components, I thought, were really quite confusing. So crude products and liquids were negative, but then there is big lump, this pink lump of more than €500 million in other. Can you talk a bit about sort of what sits where what this loss in crude, products and liquids, is that what that is? Is that is this impacted by trading or shipping derivatives?

And also on M&P, if this guidance of $400 million a quarter, like we have been above that now for quite a few quarters where, you know, what stock we should still sort of put in that guidance. And the second thing I wanted to ask, of course, we are all trying to figure out you know, the balance sheet is deleveraging quite a rapid pace. We can see forward prices on the screen and project forward figuring out where of course the incremental, what the use of all the funding will be.

And in that context, so I came across some renewed commentary recently about Tanzania LNG I was wondering if that is indeed sort of on your radar and then what, you know, like, what we. You know, what. I was wondering if you could give us an update on your plans there.

Torgrim Reitan: Okay. So thanks, Martijn. So let me take the MMP first. So the other part, that is actually amongst other refinery. Then on CPL, you are absolutely right. The CPL, the crude business has actually gone very well in the quarter. And the reason why they are showing negative results is related to shipping derivatives. And just let me explain that a little bit. The way we run our shipping fleet is that we have long term TC contracts on them. Which are actually significantly below current markets for shipping. Then we swap some of it to floating, and that is sort of the derivative effects that you sort of book for 1 quarter.

So the underlying situation is that the food is has done very well, and we operate with lower shipping rates. Than many. And last point on M&P. I mean, in the in the current market situation, there are good opportunities for them to make money in general as such. But we have no. We. Yeah. So. Right. And then on sort of your second question is on Tanzania. So Tanzania is, you know, very significant gas discoveries. You know, many years ago that sort of we together with partners have matured. There are no new news on Tanzania. It is an option.

We have not brought that into our plants or guiding in any way, and we do see that as a long term optionality for the future. Thank you.

Bård Pedersen: Thank you, Martijn. Next 1 is Fergus Neve from Redburn. Fergus, please go ahead.

Fergus: 2, please, if I might. Just first, could you talk us through the new acreage in Brazil, Angola and Namibia that you mentioned at the start of the call and the forthcoming exploration plans in those new acres through 4Q and into 2027. I think you mentioned that you had started looking at an option in Namibia. And then secondly, with Shell joining the Bay Du Nord project, you mentioned we are still on track for FID in early 27. I was curious if you could comment on what milestones still remain to get to that FID stage now that you brought the new partner on board? Thanks.

Torgrim Reitan: Okay. No. Very good. Thank you for this. So in Brazil, we have over the years built sort of a large and larger portfolio of exploration opportunities so that 2 new exploration licenses this year. it is called Ruby and Rudok Crucita, if you are interested. We have 100% ownership in the first, 70% in the second 1, and we operate, both of them Then in Namibia, I mean, we formed into an to exploration opportunity together with Chevron. The plan is to spud that well during fourth quarter, in the quarter we are in. And clearly, we have to wait to comment more on that.

On Shell, on Bay du Nord, I mean, very happy to have Shell on board as a partner. So they are buying into the concept and all of that, and there is nothing that sort of stops us from moving forward as planned, which is a final investment decision. Early part of next year. So this is going to be a significant investment, but also a very important contributor in the 20 's cash flow for us.

Bård Pedersen: Thank you, Fergus. We are moving on with Vidar Lyngvær in Danske Bank. Vidar, please you are ready for your question?

Vidar Lyngvær: Thank you so much for the update today, and thank you for taking my questions. 2 from me, please. First, I would like to ask about this thing. What kind of breakeven or CapEx range per barrel do you need to see to at the complex selection, to go ahead with the FID next year? And are the consortium looking to bring in other partners at this point, or how does that appeal to the market for that? Any comment around that would be appreciated. I will post here for the next 1.

Torgrim Reitan: Thank you very much, Vidar. So on this thing, we have not sort of issued any sort of breakevens or CapEx range. We have worked that project, you know, significantly and sort of cost No, has come down and it has improved quite a bit. So we are. But there are still some work to do. We plan for a, you know, concept select pretty soon and upon the investment decision, maybe in a year's time or so like that. Partnerships is going well, so there are no intention to do anything with that.

Vidar Lyngvær: Alright. Thank you. Appreciate that. Second question, if I may. So the only Cypress Aurora. Collaboration with Aker BP. it is been a long awaited collaboration. What sort of volumes do you target from the transfer over time? I understand it is early days, but anything you could share there would be appreciated. And how will costs be shared? Yeah.

Torgrim Reitan: that is too early to comment on. You know, the Norwegian regulator have put out a number there. I think it is 2.8 billion which is sort of a Johan Sverdrup size type of thing. But the reservoir is. The rest of us, of course, are very, very different than Johan Sverdrup. These are tight reservoirs that sort of tracking technology needs to quickly to be used. So our job is now to qualify technology and see if there is an opportunity to look into this. This is sort of long term optionality. I just want to leave that with you.

Vidar Lyngvær: Thank you, Victor. That number that they put out, would that be, like, a hard capital?

Bård Pedersen: Sorry, Vidar, but I need to move on with my list. You can raise your hand again, and we will take the question if we have time towards the end. The next 1 on the list is Jason Gabelman from TD Cowen. So, Jason, please go ahead.

Jason Gabelman: Yeah. Hey. Thanks for taking my questions. Wanted to go back to Canada and Bay Du Nord. With the change in the fiscal policy there and the additional tax deductions, you could take on the project. Does that kinda change the potential scoping of this project? Does it create additional expansion opportunities? And does it. It does not change how you view your participation in Northeast Canada more broadly?

Torgrim Reitan: Yep. Thanks, Jason. Yeah. You know, it is quite interesting to see the renewed attention to North East Of Canada. So clearly, we see that the central and the provincial, you know, governments are very supportive to develop this area. And we also see all the companies showing more and more interest into this What we will do here, we will not change the concept in any way. We are on our way to a final investment decision, and we will deliver that. So that sort of. We. That development is only based on part of the discoveries that we have.

We have a series of other discoveries in the licenses around that are nice tie ins when Bay Du Nord ultimately gets off plateau. And there is more prospectivity around this. So this is maybe a little bit John Castberg type of approach, where we take a major investment based on the new 1 reservoir. And then clearly the upper optionality around So really looking forward to opening up a new area on. In Northeast Of Canada. Great. And my follow-up is on Rosebank. We saw Jackdaw get the positive government approval to go ahead. Any read through to Rosebank Have you heard anything from the government since the Jackdaw decision?

And if it is if it does not get government approval, does that change, the potential distributions you could get from the Adura joint venture? Oh, first of all, we clearly expect that there will be a positive, you know, decision on the Rosebank. We just have to remind ourselves that this is a project that was discovered, you know, almost 20 years ago. We started investing in 2023. And the ship is now out there West Of Shetland with people working onboard. And this is going to be 4% of UK's gas production when in production, and it is going to be a part of the tax revenue helping the government to government to fund their budgets.

So clearly, we expect that to happen. The field is on schedule to start production next year, first half of next year. So that is clearly our expectations.

Bård Pedersen: Thank you, Jason. Moving forward, I still have a good list of questions. Ahmed Ben Salem from ODDO. Please, Ahmed.

Analyst: Yeah. Thank you for taking my questions. I have 2, if I may. First, how sustainable do you see the current production growth beyond 2026? Especially in 2027 and 2028? And second, given your strong balance sheet, how are you thinking about the trade off between organic investment potential M&A and further buybacks. Thank you.

Torgrim Reitan: Okay. No. So thank you very much, Ahmed. So production in 2027, is going to be. We expect it to be not fully in line with the production in 26 was an extraordinary year with lot of ramp ups and start ups. But clearly, 2027 is sort of a part of the production growth all the way to 2030. So it will be higher than 2025 and building up to the production in 2030 as a So we announced a production growth the Capital Markets Day all the way to 2020 This is very much in line with that. Your second question on the balance sheet.

When it comes to capital allocation, if I go back to the framework that we talked about at the Capital Markets Day, first priority is cash dividend. 5%, more than 5% growth per year. The second 1 is reinvest into our business, around $12 billion And we are a strong believer that we want to be consistent through cycle when we invest and we think there is most value to have around that. The third 1 is to run with a very solid balance sheet. And the fourth is share buyback as the flexible tool. So that is an order of priority. So organic investment is very important.

M&A is always an opportunity, and it is a very natural part of the way we run our business and develop our business. So you should expect there to be M&A activity also going forward. Some divestments and some acquisitions. Thank you very much.

Bård Pedersen: Next 1 on my list is Matt Lofting from JPMorgan. Matthew, please go ahead. Your mic is open.

Matt Lofting: Thanks, Bård, and thanks, Torgrim. Lot of my questions have been covered. I will perhaps just put 1 to you following up on capital allocation. You talked earlier, Torgrim, about not wanting to be too cyclical around buybacks Understandably, you referenced the M&A piece. When you look at organic investment opportunities, the company obviously raised modestly the budget earlier in the year for 2027. Do you see any further opportunities to utilize some of the additional cash flow that is being generated by further accelerating asset developments, but particularly perhaps in Norway where you have got the opportunity to help secure European energy systems and capture cash flow in doing so? Thanks.

Torgrim Reitan: You know, Matthew, thank you very much. So in Norway, let me focus on Norway. Clearly, we are stepping up our investments, I mean, to sort of the program that we call NCS 2035, where we now sort of reduce the time from discovery to production with 50%. And I actually also the cost of the developments by 50%. So actually, underlying investments in Norway, we have increased that a little bit compared to earlier. So there are more projects coming, more production coming and all of that. Point being, this is a machine that sort of keeps running and sort of we cannot sort of adjust that program on sort of fluctuations in the price.

We just need that to run consistently as such. And that is also good for sort of the whole supplier universe around this because we do not want to sort of trade inflation in certain part of the cycles and then sort of significant, you know, too much capacity in other parts of the cycle. So we do believe, you know, steady, predictable delivery all the way to 2030 for a search. And then of course, if there is significant discovery, I mean, clearly, are going to make to look for bigger things as well. I mean, we will continue that on top of all of this naturally. But first, need to make the discoveries, of course.

Bård Pedersen: Thank you, Matthew. We then move to Alastair Syme from Citi. Alastair, please go ahead.

Alastair Syme: Yeah. Thanks, Bård. Torgrim, I just wanted to come back to the Lackawanna Energy Center acquisition and just, you know, I know you said that with the capital markets, but you gave a bit of a presentation about the North American energy business. But can you just sort of talk us through how that opportunity came about? Why was it prioritized versus other things you could have done? Thank you.

Torgrim Reitan: Yeah. So yeah. Thanks, Alastair. Yeah. So we have sort of for quite some time, always looked at how can we create even more value out of our US gas position. And what we currently are doing, we take our gas in kind. We sort of market and trade it to sell and transport it to sell. That has sort of. We have benefited clearly from that. And then we do see that sort of there is more value to be had in the intersection between the gas markets and the power markets. And we know that our.

You know, clearly, are other companies looking for you know, companies like ours to see if there are closer collaboration that can be had. So I think that is sort of where the 2 companies met that we saw that we had sort of complementary assets and skills that together can actually create more value for the both of us. So this is in energy that sort of operates this plant. A premium operator and a very solid and reputable operator. In the in The US. Thank you.

Bård Pedersen: We then move on to Paul Redman. From BNP Paribas. Paul, please go ahead.

Paul Redman: Hi there. Just 2 questions. First 1 was just to distribution program, and thanks for a little bit more context. You highlighted the fact that the buyback is unlikely to be linear and announced on a quarterly basis going forward. If prices are above $80 a barrel and same on the TTF price. But how will we think about that increase? Does it come down to percentage of cash flow for operations? Is there any basis in which that upside to buyback, will come through? And then my second question, I think you mentioned earlier that you expect cash flow from operations on the forward curve to currently be to be $29 billion for the year?

Just wanted to remind myself of that comics. When I run sensitivities, I think I get a little bit higher So I am taking a high case plus sensitivities on top. It takes me to over 30 billion but maybe I am some wrong somewhere on my maths.

Torgrim Reitan: Okay. No. Thanks, Paul. So on the first 1, on the distribution. So we are not using a percentage of cash flow operations. Instead, we have sort of put forward this sort of framework that sort of gives you sort of a pretty linear approach when prices are sort of in within these bands, which are sort of more normal situations and then sort of. We are not we are not able to give you sort of, you know, more guiding than what I have said on when prices are above. But clearly, it gives us an opportunity to increase the share buyback but you should not expect sort of a linear approach to that.

And clearly, we do not want to be too cyclical here. Instead, we want to see to that we build balance sheet in a price environment, enabling us to create value and being consistent in low price environment. And then we do intend to run with a very solid balance sheet through all of this. Then on the last 1, there might be some differences of timing when you have picked forward prices and all of that. So there is lots of uncertainty here. And I am not in a position to know exactly what this is, but maybe you want to have a chat with Investor Relations afterwards. Thank you.

Bård Pedersen: We are, of course, available to follow up of that, Paul. But now we move on to Naisheng Cui from Barclays. Please go ahead, Naisheng.

Naisheng Cui: Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I have 2, please. The first 1, just to clarify on 2027 distribution. Torgrim, given what you said on buybacks, should we assume that you literally rule out a special dividend? In another word, all the incremental distribution will come from buybacks? Then my second question is on safety. Page 3 of the presentation caught my eye. I wonder, could you help us understand the safety data explained this quarter? Whether there were any common underlying issues and how quickly you expect the mitigation measures to be implemented? Thank you.

Torgrim Reitan: Okay. Thanks, Naisheng. On your 4. First question on distribution, Share buyback is going to be the flexible part of the capital distribution. So that is what we want to use. The second question, struggle a little bit, understand or hear you, but I think you talked about safety and whether it was all. Some sort of major things there. No. None. No incidents with sort of major accident potential as such. So clearly, we watch this space, you know, very, very closely.

I just want to leave with you that there has been mean, the even if sort of there is a negative trend this year, if you look back over the years and take serious incident frequency, that has gone from 6 in 2001 when we IPO ed to 0.25, I current point in time. So I mean, this is a tight ship that we are running. But all the weak signals we can get hold of, we use them to improve our business as much as we can. Thank you.

Bård Pedersen: We will take 1 last question, and that will be you, Jung from ABG Sundal Collier. So Jung, please go ahead.

Jung: Thanks for that. And I will limit my question to 1. So it is. This is the question. Over the last few months, several investors have asked me what are Equinor's competitive advantages that makes them a better owner of gas fired power plants onshore or in around Pennsylvania than other players. And to be honest, I struggle to give investors a good answer on that. Could you? Tell me what should I tell investors? What are Equinor's key competitive advantages of owning gas fired plants in the onshore in The US?

Torgrim Reitan: Yeah. Well, thanks, Jung. So a few points. It starts with sort of the gas position. And that is sort of be a very long, when it comes to gas in the Northeast, The US. Second point, we have a very large trading and marketing operation out of Stanford. And knows PGM market very well. Also from that point of view, from the gas side. We have a very strong balance sheet and we are sort of a long term partner for others in this space. So clearly, know, if you are sort of really thinking broadly here, this is an area where clearly massive investments are going to data centers and AI.

And those companies are typically looking for partners also that can manage the whole energy space. Search. And then we are, you know, 1 player into this, and we do believe engaging also into an opportunity like a Lackawanna makes us more able to take out sort of the margins out of the that part of the industry. So, yeah. So that is sort of my 2 cents on that, Jung. Thanks.

Bård Pedersen: Okay. Thank you. Thank you very much, Jung. We are 1 minute above the hour. So by that, I would like to thank you all for calling in, and thanks to the analysts for your questions. As usual, the IR team remain available if there are any follow-up. So please do not hesitate to reach out. Have a good, rest of the day, everybody.

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