- GBP/USD rebounds above 1.32 as US payrolls badly miss forecasts.
- Unemployment rises to 4.2%, pushing Fed hold odds to 79%.
- BoE tightening expectations keep Sterling supported ahead of officials’ speeches.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) rises by over 0.41% against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, as the US Unemployment Rate rises amid a worse-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls report for September. At the time of writing, GBP/USD trades at 1.3250 after bouncing off daily lows beneath 1.3200.
Sterling rallies as weak US hiring pushes markets firmly toward Fed hold
US employment data showed that in September, the Unemployment Rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2% as the economy added just 29K to the workforce, well below estimates of 90K. August’s figures were revised down from 162K to 133K.
After the report, money markets increased their bets that the US central bank will keep rates steady, with odds at 79% and pricing out a rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in October, according to Prime Terminal.
Earlier in the week, traders scrambled to shift expectations that the Fed would hold rates at the October meeting, following the release of the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.
US Treasury yields are holding steady after the report, with the long end of the curve unchanged, while the US 10-year Treasury note yields 5.256%, up nearly one and a half basis points.
Across the pond, the UK economic docket remained absent, but Andy Burnham’s hinting that the UK could rejoin the European Union (EU) gained traction as he campaigned to stay in the EU in a 2016 referendum.
Traders anticipate roughly 30 basis points of monetary tightening from the BoE by year-end and about 90 bps by 2027.
Next week, the UK economic docket will feature speeches by Bank of England’s Mann and Lombardelli. In the US, the schedule will feature the ISM Services PMI, the FOMC's last meeting minutes, jobless claims and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3225, keeping a bearish near-term bias as spot holds beneath the cluster of simple moving averages around 1.3453 and multiple trend-line levels overhead. Price is capped first by a descending resistance trend line around 1.3313, while the latest reading of the Relative Strength Index (14) at 33.9 stays just above oversold territory, hinting that downside momentum remains dominant but could be slowing rather than collapsing.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the downward-sloping trend line break near 1.3313, followed by another descending barrier around 1.3434 that converges with the 50/100/200-period simple moving average cluster near 1.3453. Above there, an upward-sloping trend line that now stands around 1.3544 and the higher structural level near 1.3745 form successive caps, and GBP/USD would need to reclaim these areas to ease the current bearish pressure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Pound Sterling Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Euro.
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
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