Bitcoin has reclaimed the $80,000 level after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller signaled he could support holding interest rates steady if inflation pressures continue to ease, alleviating concerns about further rate hikes.
According to global crypto market data site CoinMarketCap on the 4th, Bitcoin traded at $81,250 (approximately 110 million won), up 5.52% from the same time the previous day. CoinDesk data showed Bitcoin at $81,216.93, marking its first recovery above $80,000 since August 28.
In an interview with Reuters on the 3rd, Waller said, "Inflation is finally starting to show some signs of cooling," adding that "if the data released over the next two weeks continues this trend, I would support keeping the federal funds rate at its current level."
Following his remarks, the market-implied probability of a September rate hike fell rapidly. The U.S. 2-year Treasury yield dropped more than 4 basis points to 4.342%, while the 10-year yield fell more than 2 basis points to 4.772%. The dollar also turned weaker, with major New York stock indexes rising across the board as risk sentiment improved broadly.
The rebound is notable given that it came amid an unfavorable macro backdrop. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh offered no clear signal on September rate direction at the Jackson Hole symposium late last month, and the market interpreted his speech—which emphasized inflation vigilance—as hawkish. The probability of a September rate hike, which stood in the 30% range before the speech, surged to the 60% range this week, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 4.8% to its highest level since 2023.
Rising international oil prices amid escalating Middle East tensions also posed a headwind. Higher oil prices could stoke inflation and prolong the Fed's tightening stance. Combined with dollar strength, conditions were unfavorable for risk assets including Bitcoin, yet Bitcoin did not fall significantly below $77,000.
Bargain-Hunting and Institutional Demand Form Support
Bitfinex estimated the average purchase price of active market participants at approximately $76,350. As Bitcoin approached that level this week, capital flowed in from investors who viewed the price decline as a buying opportunity. Supply from investors who bought in February and March was largely absorbed near their breakeven point, establishing the $76,350 area as a short-term support level.
Whale and institutional buying was prominent during the rebound. Bitcoin holdings in wallets managed by major exchanges and large liquidity providers—including Coinbase, Binance, and Kraken—increased significantly, while entities presumed to be whales accumulated more than 20,000 BTC.
Corporate spot buying also resumed. Strategy (MSTR), the world's largest publicly traded corporate holder of Bitcoin, purchased an additional 4,603 Bitcoin last week for a total of $369.7 million (approximately 500 billion won). This marked its first purchase in about two months since late June. The market is interpreting this as a signal that corporate demand for Bitcoin remains robust.
U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw net inflows totaling $924 million (approximately 1.2 trillion won) over nine consecutive trading days. Although some funds subsequently exited, the assessment is that the recent rally was supported by spot demand rather than relying solely on speculative buying in derivatives markets.
Reduced excessive leverage also contributed to price defense. Open interest in perpetual futures in derivatives markets has remained at low levels since May. This means the risk of cascading liquidations amplifying downside moves during price declines has diminished accordingly.
U.S. Crypto-Related Stocks Rally Broadly
U.S. crypto-related stocks rose in tandem following Waller's remarks. Stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Group gained 16.46%, Coinbase Global (COIN) rose 10.14%, Bitcoin miner MARA Holdings (MARA) jumped 17.56%, and Strategy climbed 5.85%. The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) also closed higher.
However, some analysts caution that it is premature to conclude Bitcoin has entered a new uptrend. Profit-taking has repeatedly emerged in the $80,000–$83,000 range, capping further gains. The May high of $82,820 is viewed as particularly strong resistance. Analysts suggest Bitcoin needs to decisively break above $83,000 and form a weekly close above that level to increase the likelihood of further upside.
Conversely, if buying momentum weakens and Bitcoin falls below $76,350, the foundation of this rebound could be shaken. Since that price level is estimated to be the average cost basis of recently entered investors, a drop below it could trigger selling from those looking to exit near breakeven.
Yahoo Finance noted that Bitcoin has posted negative September returns in 9 of the past 15 years, flagging whether it can sustain current levels as a key question. Sean Farrell, head of digital assets at Fundstrat, said, "It's important data and should be taken seriously," but added, "Bitcoin has already avoided negative September returns for four consecutive years, and seasonality is a useful reference but not a panacea."
Bitcoin surged 25% in August. The rally was driven by the U.S. Treasury's announcement that it would expand long-term bond purchases, reigniting "dollar-weakness trades," combined with expectations that the regulatory framework would gradually become clearer. Some strategists argue that the August rally suggests the crypto bear market has bottomed or is approaching a bottom.
Derivatives Market Competition Intensifies
Meanwhile, as the boundary between crypto exchanges and traditional financial markets narrows, competition in derivatives markets is expanding. Coinbase is pursuing the launch of single-stock perpetual futures products for U.S. retail investors and has filed related application documents with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The company plans to proceed with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as well, and if approved, it would be able to extend services currently offered overseas to U.S. retail investors.
Prediction market platform Polymarket has launched perpetual futures products tracking Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil, as well as crypto assets, stocks, gold, and silver. The products offer 24-hour trading with no expiration and support leverage up to 20x. They are available outside the U.S. and are expected to compete with global crypto derivatives platforms such as Hyperliquid and Binance.
Regulatory conflict over prediction markets is also intensifying. A Michigan state court approved a preliminary injunction blocking prediction market platform Kalshi from offering services within the state. Violations could result in fines of up to $500,000 (approximately 670 million won) per day. Michigan argues that Kalshi is effectively operating a gaming business without state authorization, while Kalshi maintains that event contracts regulated by the CFTC cannot be subject to separate state regulation.
On the same day, New Jersey filed a petition for certiorari with the U.S. Supreme Court in a Kalshi-related case, raising the possibility that the conflict could escalate to the nation's highest court. If the Supreme Court takes up the case, the key issues would be whether regulatory authority over event contracts rests exclusively with the CFTC, or whether individual states can regulate them under gambling and gaming laws.
Market attention is now focused on the U.S. employment data released that day. If the labor market proves stronger than expected, rate-hike concerns could resurface. While Waller's remarks helped Bitcoin achieve a short-term rebound, further gains will depend on macroeconomic data and the Fed's policy signals.