Editor’s Note: The ETFs tracking benchmark indices, lede, economic data, and the headline were updated in the story.
U.S. stock futures pared losses to advance on Thursday, as the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 indices rose, following Wednesday’s mixed close.
U.S. weekly jobless claims edged down to a seasonally adjusted 197,000 for the week ending Sept. 26, falling by 1,000 from the prior week’s revised level and signaling ongoing labor market strength. The four-week moving average eased by 2,500 to 200,000, while continued unemployment claims for the week ending Sept. 19 dropped by 11,000 to 1.701 million.
Iran announced receiving a U.S. response regarding a proposal to restore the collapsed Gulf ceasefire as final U.S. troops completed their withdrawal from neighboring Iraq, Reuters reported. Iranian-backed militias are framing the military exit—coming 23 years after the initial invasion—as a major regional victory.
Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury bond yielded 5.33%, and the 2-year Treasury bond yielded 4.91%, at the last check. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool projections show markets pricing in a 39.3% likelihood of the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates after its October meeting.
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF QQQ, which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, were higher in premarket trading on Thursday. The SPY was up 0.38% at $765.54, while the QQQ advanced 0.60% to $744.23.
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- Micron Technology Inc. MU was 0.037% higher in premarket on Thursday after it posted fourth-quarter revenue of $54.23 billion, beating analyst estimates of $50.75 billion, and adjusted earnings of $33.42 per share, beating estimates of $31.45 per share.
- Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that MU maintains a strong price trend in the long, short, and medium terms, with a good quality score.
- Vicor Corp. VICR surged 12.2% after raising its third-quarter sequential revenue growth guidance.
- Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that VICR maintains a strong price trend in the long, short, and medium terms, with a strong growth score.
- Synopsys Inc. SNPS was 2.46% higher after it said that it sees FY2027 adjusted earnings of $19.04 to $19.12 per share, versus market estimates of $17.32 per share.
- Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that SNPS maintains a strong price trend in the short term but a weak trend in the medium and long term, with a poor value score.
- Constellation Energy Corp. CEG was 2.94% higher in Thursday premarket after it announced a 20-year power purchase agreement with Amazon.com Inc. AMZN that will add 190 megawatts (MW) of nuclear capacity at Calvert Cliffs, Maryland.
- Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that CEG maintains a weak price trend in the short, long, and medium terms, with a good growth score.
- Nike Inc. NKE was 0.40% lower as analysts expect it to post quarterly earnings of $0.44 per share on revenue of $11.33 billion after the closing bell.
- Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that NKE maintains a weak price trend in the long, short, and medium terms, with a poor quality score.
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Health care, consumer staples, and industrials led S&P 500 sectors lower on Wednesday, while information technology and consumer discretionary logged gains as U.S. stocks settled mixed and the Dow Jones index dropped over 400 points following PCE data.
In his market outlook, market strategist Craig Shapiro draws parallels between current economic indicators and the setup leading to Black Monday, framing the market through the lens of an “Echoes of 1987” framework.
Shapiro observes that five out of the six conditions preceding the 1987 crash are active today: rising long-end yields, reduced foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries, an inflating economy, stretched stock valuations, and automated selling mechanisms.
He notes that “October 1987 was a configuration, not a single shock,” warning that today’s primary missing component is a falling U.S. dollar coupled with rising long yields.
Rather than predicting an immediate stock market collapse, Shapiro outlines a scenario where macro pressures continue to build. He highlights a growing internal divergence: “The economy is splitting in two. AI-driven activity is booming, while the labor differential and consumer confidence have fallen to their weakest levels in years.”
While modern circuit breakers make a single-day crash unlikely, Shapiro assigns a 40% probability to a “continued grinding repricing” in equities and a 20% chance to a “correlated deleveraging with a dollar reversal,” which he views as the closest modern equivalent to 1987.
Here’s what investors will be keeping an eye on Thursday.
- Jobless Claims: Initial state unemployment claims fell by 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 197,000 for the week ending Sept. 26, pushing the four-week moving average down to 200,000, while continued claims slipped to 1.701 million for the week ending Sept. 19.
- September’s U.S. manufacturing PMI data will be out by 9:45 a.m., and September’s ISM manufacturing PMI alongside August’s construction spending data will be released by 10:00 a.m. ET.
Commodities, Crypto, And Global Equity Markets
Crude Oil WTI futures were trading higher in the early New York session by 2.18% to hover around $92.39 per barrel.
Gold Spot US Dollar rose 0.03% to hover around $4,158.45 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was 0.29% lower at the 101.7480 level.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin BTCUSD was trading 0.3% higher at $83,562 per coin over the last 24 hours.
Asian markets were mixed on Thursday, as Australia’s ASX 200 and India’s Nifty 50 indices fell. South Korea’s Kospi, China’s CSI 300, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 indices rose. European markets were lower in early trading.
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