Congress has six years to enact changes to Social Security to prevent cuts to retirement benefits. Senators elected in the Nov. 3 midterms will be in office when the deadline arrives, and their decisions may be critical in making tax changes that can affect Social Security.

During the midterm campaign season, tax policy surfaced in the debate over Social Security in two different ways. Many Democrats, and some Republicans, called for high earners to pay more in Social Security payroll taxes, while many Republicans touted a recently enacted tax deduction for adults 65 and older.

The diverging tactics come at a crucial moment for reform: The first could increase revenue flowing into the program. The second reduces eligible older adults' income taxes and can lower the taxes some beneficiaries pay on Social Security benefits, reducing program revenue.

Social Security trustees' latest projections show the trust fund used to pay retirement benefits may start to become depleted in 2032, when 78% of benefits would be payable.

Lawmakers do have some leeway — if the program's retirement and disability trust funds are combined, depletion would be pushed out to 2034, when 83% of scheduled benefits would be payable. But that's still a haircut for retirees — and it's coming soon.

"We've waited too long already, and the consequences are that the gap has grown larger," Shai Akabas, vice president of economic policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center, said of Social Security's shortfall.

On the campaign trail, midterm candidates largely avoided specifics on how they would reform Social Security. However, raising the payroll tax cap, also known as the taxable maximum, was a popular choice among Democratic candidates. That would require people who earn more than the cap, currently $184,500, to begin contributing payroll taxes for their earnings above that amount.

Meanwhile, some Republican candidates said they would extend the temporary senior tax deduction of up to $6,000 per eligible individual that is set to expire in 2028.

The deduction, part of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed in July of last year and billed as a senior bonus, was among the factors that moved Social Security trustees' retirement trust fund depletion projections three months sooner, according to an annual report released in June.

Here's what experts say could be in store now that Democrats have won control of the House and Senate.

Raising taxes for high earners

Social Security is a pay-as-you-go system that relies on payroll taxes from workers to help make monthly benefit payments to millions of Americans.

In 2026, earnings up to $184,500 are subject to that tax. Workers and employers each contribute 6.2% of pay up to that threshold, while self-employed individuals pay 12.4%.

The wage cap will rise in 2027 to $192,300. It adjusts higher annually to reflect incremental changes in the average wage index.

On the campaign trail, some House and Senate candidates said the cap should be raised or eliminated entirely so high earners contribute more.

Following the election, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., who is expected to become the next chair of the Social Security subcommittee, said on X on Nov. 7 that his proposal to increase benefits by at least $2,400 per year and "scrap the cap" on earnings subject to Social Security taxes would be a "top priority."

Outgoing Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., responded on X that the plan would "put a 12.4% tax" on people who are not millionaires or billionaires.

The idea of higher payroll taxes has broader support. A national survey fielded in February found most respondents — 79% — support raising taxes for wages over $400,000, according to the University of Maryland School of Public Policy. The change was the most popular option tested among the 2,509 adults surveyed.

Rising income inequality has meant the payroll tax cap no longer covers 90% of earnings, though that percentage was expected to remain constant when lawmakers enacted the last major reforms to the program in 1983, according to research from the Roosevelt Institute, a New York-based liberal think tank. The share of earnings covered by Social Security payroll taxes fell to around 83% in 2000 and has mostly stabilized at that level, according to the institute.

Despite candidates mentioning plans to change the cap during election season, some experts say Congress may put off tax hikes that could be politically unpopular.

"I think lawmakers may put some of these taxes on the table closer to 2032, when the Social Security trust fund hits insolvency," said Jessica Riedl, a fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, which provides independent analyses of tax issues. "In Washington, they love to wait until the last minute."

If the payroll tax cap were lifted from just under $200,000 to $300,000 in earnings per year, that would cost someone at that higher income threshold about $6,700 more in direct payroll taxes, Riedl said.

"There's no interest on either side for these sorts of tax increases in the short term," Riedl said. In the long term, though, "everything is on the table," she said.

While many Democrats have pushed for raising those taxes, some Republicans have also shared their openness to doing so.

"There's a crack in the dam there breaking," Dan Adcock, director of government relations and policy at the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare, said of the Republican support.

Even if lawmakers raise or eliminate the cap, they would still need to agree on other changes to shore up the program. Republicans may want benefit cuts such as raising the retirement age in exchange for increasing taxes, Adcock said.

Just how far adjusting the taxable maximum would go to help solve Social Security's funding woes depends on how it is applied.

If the cap is eliminated starting in 2027, with the full 12.4% tax applying to all earnings and no benefit credit for earnings above the current threshold, that would eliminate 58% of the long-range actuarial balance over 75 years, according to a September analysis by the Social Security Administration.

Applying the 12.4% payroll tax rate to earnings over $250,000 starting in 2027 could address 57% of the long-range balance, according to the SSA, provided there are no benefit increases in exchange for the extra contributions.

If the 12.4% payroll tax rate were applied to earnings over $400,000 starting in 2027 without benefit increases, that would eliminate 53% of the long-range actuarial balance, the agency's analysis found.

Eventually, all earnings would be subject to Social Security payroll taxes as the gap between the taxable maximum, which increases every year, and the new threshold closes over time.

Yet some experts say raising the payroll tax cap could have consequences for taxpayers and the economy.

Raising the cap would be an "unprecedented increase" in marginal tax rates, according to William McBride, chief economist at the Tax Foundation, an independent tax policy research organization.

Lifting the threshold could add more than 12 percentage points to the cost of earning an additional dollar of wages, McBride said. Those higher costs could affect the labor market, which may see higher unemployment as a result of the change, he said.

'No tax on Social Security'

OBBBA's new senior tax deduction of up to $6,000 per individual — or "bonus additional amount for seniors," as it was dubbed in an early version of the legislation — is in effect for tax years 2025 through 2028.

Lawmakers elected to Congress in the midterms may decide whether to extend the temporary tax break.

"2028 is going to be a presidential election year, and I would not expect either party to be willing to allow any senior tax cuts to expire while they're competing for senior votes," Riedl said.

When President Donald Trump signed OBBBA into law in 2025, the White House said in a release: "No tax on Social Security is a reality." However, the new law does not eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits.

Instead, it provides a deduction that reduces seniors' taxable income regardless of whether they have claimed Social Security benefits.

During the campaign, Republicans touted the $6,000 senior deduction as tax relief and criticized Democrats for voting against the law that enacted it. However, congressional Democrats unanimously opposed OBBBA, citing provisions including cuts to Medicaid and food assistance.

Some effects of the new $6,000 senior deduction are different from those of eliminating taxes on benefits, according to McBride at the Tax Foundation. The senior deduction affects lower- and middle-income taxpayers to a greater degree, while eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits would be more beneficial to upper-income taxpayers, McBride said.

How Social Security benefits are currently taxed

Individuals with $25,000 to $34,000 in combined income — the sum of adjusted gross income, tax-exempt interest and half of annual Social Security benefits — pay federal taxes on up to 50% of their Social Security benefits. For individuals with over $34,000 in combined income, up to 85% of their Social Security benefits are subject to federal income tax.

For married couples filing jointly with between $32,000 and $44,000 in combined income, up to 50% of their Social Security benefits are subject to federal income tax. For married couples with more than $44,000 in combined income, that increases to up to 85% of their benefits.

The senior bonus tax deduction allows those age 65 and older to deduct up to $6,000 for individuals, or up to $12,000 for married couples. The deduction phases out for modified adjusted gross income over $75,000 for single filers and $150,000 for married couples.

The senior bonus deduction — together with the tax year 2025 standard deduction of $15,750 for single taxpayers and $31,500 for married couples and the existing senior deduction for those who qualify of $2,000 for singles and $3,200 for married couples — "amounts to the largest tax break in history for America's seniors," the White House said in July 2025. In 2026, the standard deduction is $16,100 for single filers and $32,200 for married couples.

Under OBBBA, 88% of beneficiaries, or 51.4 million individuals age 65 and older receiving Social Security income, will have exemptions and deductions that exceed their taxable Social Security income, according to the administration. Prior to the law, 64% of beneficiaries, or 37.2 million individuals, had tax breaks that exceeded their taxable Social Security income.

But the measure does nothing to resolve Social Security's depletion problem.

In an annual report released in June, Social Security's trustees cited OBBBA as having a "substantial effect" on the program's financial status because beneficiaries will pay less in income taxes on benefits. In that report, the trustees moved the projected depletion date for the program's retirement trust fund to the fourth quarter of 2032 — up one quarter from the previous year's projections.

"This new deduction for seniors cuts into some of the funding for the trust fund, so it makes the solvency date a little nearer in time," McBride said. "It makes the program a little more fragile, if you will."