New Zealand's business confidence improved in the third quarter despite rising fuel prices and geopolitical headwinds, according to the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research.
The private think tank's quarterly survey of business opinion found that a net 43% of firms expected general business conditions to improve, up from 8% optimism in the prior quarter.
The survey was conducted from September 9 to 28 and overlapped with a sharp increase in fuel prices following a reescalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran.
NZIER said in a statement that the recent developments underscored continued volatility and uncertainty in global oil supply and prices, though the effect on sentiment appeared muted for now.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, 40% expected business conditions to improve, compared with 14% optimism in the previous period. The survey's measure of capacity utilization edged up to 91.0% from 90.8% in the prior quarter.
Christina Leung, principal economist at NZIER, said at a press conference that a divergence persists between firms' experience of fairly weak activity and their expectations for the next quarter, which generally point to improvement ahead.
NZIER said the stabilization in costs and pricing indicators in the latest survey suggested a modest risk that higher fuel prices could flow through to broader inflation pressures.
Leung said NZIER does not believe further cash rate hikes are needed this year.
New Zealand's central bank raised the cash rate by 25 basis points in September to 2.75% and signaled more tightening ahead, while stressing that any further moves would be measured as it warned of mounting risks to the economic outlook.
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1. INTRODUCTION
- Report Description
- Research Methodology and the Analytical Framework
- Data-Driven Decisions for Your Business
- Glossary and Product-Specific Terms
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2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Key Findings
- Market Trends
- Strategic Implications
- Key Risks and Watchpoints
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3. DOMESTIC MARKET SIZE AND DEVELOPMENT PATH
Market Size, Growth and Scenario Framing
- Market Size: Historical Data (2012-2025) and Forecast (2026-2035)
- Growth Outlook and Market Development Path to 2035
- Growth Driver Decomposition
- Scenario Framework and Sensitivities
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4. CATEGORY SCOPE, DEFINITIONS AND BOUNDARIES
- What Is Included and How the Market Is Defined
- Market Inclusion Criteria
- Product / Category Definition
- Exclusions and Boundaries
- Distinction From Adjacent Products and Substitute Categories
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5. CATEGORY STRUCTURE, SEGMENTATION AND PRODUCT MATRIX
How the Market Splits Into Decision-Relevant Buckets
- By Product Type / Configuration
- By Application / End Use
- By Customer / Buyer Type
- By Channel / Business Model / Technology Platform
- Segment Attractiveness Matrix
- Product Matrix and Segment Growth Logic
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6. DOMESTIC DEMAND, CUSTOMER AND BUYER ARCHITECTURE
Where Demand Comes From and How It Behaves
- Consumption / Demand: Historical Data (2012-2025) and Forecast (2026-2035)
- Demand by End-Use and Buyer Group
- Demand by Customer / Consumer Segment
- Purchase Criteria, Switching Logic and Adoption Barriers
- Replacement, Replenishment and Installed-Base Dynamics
- Future Demand Outlook
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7. DOMESTIC PRODUCTION, SUPPLY AND VALUE CHAIN
- Production in the Country
- Domestic Manufacturing Footprint
- Capacity, Bottlenecks and Supply Risks
- Value Chain Logic and Margin Pools
- Distribution and Route-to-Market Structure
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8. IMPORTS, EXPORTS AND SOURCING STRUCTURE
- Exports
- Imports
- Trade Balance
- Import Dependence
- Sourcing Risks and Resilience
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9. PRICING, PROMOTION AND COMMERCIAL MODEL
- Domestic Price Levels and Corridors
- Pricing by Segment / Specification / Channel
- Cost Drivers and Margin Logic
- Promotion, Discounting and Procurement Patterns
- Revenue Quality and Commercial Levers
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10. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE AND PORTFOLIO POWER
- Market Structure and Concentration
- Competitive Archetypes
- Segment-by-Segment Competitive Intensity
- Portfolio Breadth and Product Positioning
- Capability Matrix
- Strategic Moves, Partnerships and Expansion Signals
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11. DOMESTIC MARKET STRUCTURE AND CHANNEL LOGIC
- Core Demand Centers
- Local Production and Distribution Roles
- Channel Structure
- Buyer and Procurement Architecture
- Regional Imbalances Within the Country
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12. GROWTH PLAYBOOK AND MARKET ENTRY
- Where to Play
- How to Win
- Distributor / Partner / Direct Entry Options
- Capability Thresholds
- Entry Risks and Mitigation
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13. WHERE TO PLAY NEXT: MOST ATTRACTIVE GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES
- Most Attractive Product Niches
- Most Attractive Customer Segments
- White Spaces and Unsaturated Opportunities
- High-Margin and Underpenetrated Pockets
- Most Promising Product Adjacencies
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14. PROFILES OF MAJOR COMPANIES
Leading Players and Strategic Archetypes
- Leading Manufacturers and Suppliers
- Production Footprint and Capacities
- Product Portfolio and Segment Focus
- Pricing Positioning and Indicative Price Logic
- Channel / Distribution Strength
- Strategic Archetypes
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15. METHODOLOGY, SOURCES AND DISCLAIMER
- Modeling Logic
- Source Register
- Publications, Regulatory and Industry References
- Analytical Notes
- Disclaimer