Nvidia shares climbed above $243 to a fresh record, after closing at a record $238.90 on Monday, October 5. At that close the chipmaker was worth about $5.8 trillion, roughly 4% short of $6 trillion, a level no company has reached. Higher semiconductor price targets across Wall Street are fueling the rally, and the move breaks past $236, where sellers had repeatedly blocked a breakout. History offers a warning. Five times a US company has been first to a new trillion-dollar level, Apple at $1, $2 and $3 trillion and Nvidia at $4 and $5 trillion. In the following 12 months, returns ranged from a 31% loss to a 27% gain, and the stock beat the S&P 500 only twice. Rising data-center financing costs and increasingly complex funding structures could also make the next leg harder.

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