Bitcoin has dropped to its lowest level in 82 days, trading near $72,936. It is down 3.5% in 24 hours and 6.2% over the past week. Amid the price action, one detail is worrying traders: the amount of leveraged money betting on Bitcoin keeps rising even as the price falls.
Open interest, the total value of open futures positions, has climbed steadily since early October while Bitcoin has trended lower.
That is unusual. When prices fall, leveraged traders usually get forced out and open interest drops. This time the opposite is happening. When those positions are eventually closed or liquidated, the result could be “a huge volatility event.”
The latest leg lower came after a hotter-than-expected US inflation report raised the odds of a December Fed rate hike. Expert Michaël van de Poppe said Bitcoin’s reaction to the report was “fairly good” but that the bigger picture has not changed. Bitcoin is still in a downtrend and needs to win back a key price level before turning bullish.
Van de Poppe also sees early signs of life in altcoins, which have started to move differently from Bitcoin. In his view, that split could lead to “a strong surge” in altcoins once Bitcoin finally bottoms.
Bitcoin has slipped below the $74,000 to $76,000 support zone that had held for weeks. Attention is now on lower levels:
- $71,800: the next support target, according to analyst Tara, who said it could give the market a short-term reset
- $69,000: what Tara called “THE level to watch”. A successful retest could confirm a trend reversal, though the analyst said how Bitcoin gets there will matter as much as the level itself
A new bullish divergence is forming on the 12-hour chart. Bitcoin has made a lower low in price while momentum, measured by the RSI, may be making a higher low. That often comes before a short-term bounce.
If it confirms, the next upside target is $76,500 to $77,000, where a cluster of liquidation orders is building. The last time this signal appeared, in mid-October, Bitcoin saw roughly a week of modest relief before falling again.
On longer timeframes, the outlook is mixed:
- Long term: the weekly Supertrend indicator is still green, and a bullish divergence that formed in late June and early July is still in play. The last similar signal came at the end of the 2022 bear market.
- Medium term: a bearish divergence on the three-day and daily charts has not been cancelled, which points to weak momentum over the coming weeks
A stronger recovery in US stocks could help Bitcoin. Without one, any bounce may be short-lived.
- Whether Bitcoin holds $71,800, and how it reacts if it reaches $69,000
- Whether open interest keeps rising or starts to unwind
- A move toward $76,500 to $77,000 if the short-term bullish divergence confirms
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